Tuesday, April 01, 2008

糧油通脹照炒可也

著名投資專家張士佳設專欄,提供投資教育竅門,實屬讀者之福。禤中怡讓出兩天版位也無所謂,日後改為逢周二至四同大家分享投資小心得,敬請繼續捧場,並且就無事先向讀者說明致歉,sorry!

言歸正傳,近期想弄廚為樂,最好不要炒蛋和煲粥,皆因蛋價和米價均大升,真的是回歸原始世界。有消息自然要找題材炒,所以金源米業(677)股價昨日大漲21.4%至0.68元,成交股數由上周五的300多萬股,急速增至逾9,015萬股。見到中盛糧油(1194)逆市升9.25%,見0.295元、中國綠色食品(904)增2.5%至8.61元,而農作物要施肥,中化化肥(297)也加入陣營,一日彈4%就知多熱鬧。

用米等原料做食品的股份就竟然不跌反升。仍潛水的中國旺旺(151)全日上揚1.7%,收報2.9元,還差一毫就返家鄉。諷刺的是,提起旺旺,就記得有米餅,那麼米價升,該股絲毫不受影響?該公司原來在招股書風險因素講明,06至07年的原料總額升22.4%,而白米主要在內地東北地區買入,莫非買到平價米?不炒股,一樣有農業基金可以供入市,君不見領先資產管理立即大賣廣告,發售農產品基金,趁機搶客。有投資賓架話,今年首季已叫客買貨,其中有隻寶源農業基金,早前在市場熱賣,去年11月資產才19億美元(約148.2億港元),然後在短短3個月後,資產已大幅增長至高達50億美元(約390億港元),難怪基金公司立即要hard close,即反應太踴躍,像字面解釋,要「硬梆梆」關閉,實行提早截止認購,而曾經出現類似情況的,就是去年大炒內地A股概念的JF那隻先鋒A基金。

為甚麼認購資金不是多多益善呢?原來錢太多,可能會做成基金經理無法有效管理,反而削弱其收益能力。走去分析基金表現數據的Morningstar網站看看,這隻基金去年回報就有25.36%,而直至上周五,今年以來也有7.82%累積回報,表現優於基準指數。其實,該基金並非投資傳統經營農產品的上市公司股份,而是直接投資農產品期貨市場,主力有小麥、粟米和棉花期貨,有否參與大米期貨就不見披露,但當中竟有「Lean Hogs」,是甚麼?原來是瘦豬肉條也,平倉時,應該不用收實物吧!

另外,要炒窩輪的投資者就要注意,下周一港交所(388)正式推出第一批採用五位數字證券代號的衍生權證,今次共有16隻先登場,而以香港為相關資產的窩輪中,拿到編號13001的,就是麥格理隻國泰認購輪,實行先攞頭彩不得止,甚至一口氣連奪首8個號碼,即直至編碼13008的窩輪也盡入麥格理手中,認真厲害。至於以非香港資產的窩輪也佔兩隻,就是德意志的兩隻日經窩輪,編號分別為10780和10784,至於為何先選這組數字就難明所以。

(4月1日刊於《am730》)

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