Tuesday, March 25, 2008

小心被搶錢

真的是同人唔同命,馬來西亞政局因執政黨失去優勢而趨混亂,股市立即大瀉。台灣人民卻用一人一票方式,不惜將整個政權拉下來,台灣加權平均指數卻不跌反漲4%,實行用選票贏股票,更要讓新台幣匯價彈上去。


台灣經濟有多差?且看今年2月失業率3.94%,較去年同期上升0.16個百分點,較今年1月增加0.14個百分點就知,難怪有調查顯示,當地受薪階級在過去3年的實質工資都是負增長,大學生失業情況嚴重,試問怎不想變天,因為只懂玩弄政治,不處理好人民最關注的經濟問題,政府領導人當然被轟下台。


馬英九用一招經濟牌,再添一道向內地示好的菜式,就已經讓外資放下心頭大石,自然實行用銀彈支持,昨日在台股成交中,外資買貨的多,沽貨的少,共淨買入近580億元新台幣(約149億港元);包含海外資金在內的基金亦淨買入近5,000萬元新台幣(約1,287萬元),令本月以來,該兩類投資者均淨流入台股。


今日在香港上市的台資企業勢必被這個氣氛所牽動,早前富邦銀行(636)已炒獲准入股內地銀行而令股價造上5.77元,今日能否挑戰過去12個月以來高位6.2元呢?


不過,其他台資股表現卻似乎令人失望,像07年藍籌股回報包尾的富士康國際(2038),在07年已累跌31.2%之多,投資者已哭笑不得,以為撈底,兼有台灣大選變天的預期因素,估不到直至上周五股價收市報10.3元,即在過去近兩個多月再累挫41%!


去年表現中規中矩的另一台資藍籌股裕元(551),其股價在今年以來亦已合共不見了19.46%,上周五收市報22.55元。至於其他台資鞋業股如信星集團(1170)和創信國際(676)一向交投淡靜,且看能否受惠,成為最佳配角。


所謂時勢造英雄,正進行新股認購的中國旺旺(151)似乎變成逆市奇葩,儘管恒大地產(3333)和永發印務(633)最終也要中途夭折,中國旺旺如用低價發售,相信可如期在港交所(388)主板掛牌,不知會否反過來給予對手統一企業(220)有翻身機會,因為於去年底上市的統一企業不能擺脫股價潛水命運,以上周五收市價3.67元計,已比招股定價4.22元,累計蒸發了13%,如台股勢勁,多少有點著數。


台灣翻身,香港就要小心,皆因這個對手非同小可,若內地政府賣人情,單是做三通,香港的轉口角色就會大大被削弱,當然這個情況需要一段時間才浮現其影響。但最迫切的是,資金會流向有錢搵的地方,究竟外資會否加大注碼,將資金調撥往台灣股市,對一向屬資金市的港股必構成一定影響。不要見到人家興奮,自己也忘形,居安思危始終有著數。


(3月25日刊於《am730》)

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