Tuesday, March 18, 2008

伯老黔驢技窮

見到美國聯儲局主席伯南克、財政部長保爾森放假也要開工,解決貝爾斯登這個炸彈,而總統布殊更是全程跟進,就知道環境有多惡劣。


伯老更竟然想出在踏入亞洲股市交易時段前,減貼現率、幫貝爾斯登找買家,希望遠方的股市不要大幅重挫,更可讓美股沽壓得以紓緩,認真夠細心。


不過,港股愈跌愈有,再跌1,152點後,恒指即使反彈,恐怕要有極好消息配合方可,因為連業績造好的滙豐控股(005)也招架乏力,收市跌3.9%,有多達58億元成交。


今日公布業績的新世界發展(017)及信和置業(083)同樣遭大戶唾棄,股價下挫9.67%和10.97%。
其他巨額成交的藍籌股,大部分是中字輩,相信內地加息疑雲多少也有影響,但中遠太平洋(1199)急瀉11.6%,恐怕是擔心出口跌,生意難有增長吧!至於剛上市的中國鐵建(1186)以10.7元招股價收市,莫非要破底?


能夠逆市向上的就是中電控股(002)和港燈(006),之前已話政府俾電費,壞帳欠奉,加上客戶用電更疏爽,生意怎會差呢?難怪成為資金避風塘。


究竟貝爾斯登是否真的外強中乾就未知,但原來謠言威力真驚人,只是傳資金不足,該公司就在短短兩日內,竟然被客戶提走高達170億美元(約1,326億港元),慘過銀行擠提,難怪管理層要在數日內接受賤價收購建議,可憐那些股東在死因未明情況下成為犧牲品。


此外,聯儲局要泵水,又推出新借錢系統,繼之前的甚麼TAF和TSLF後,今次名稱叫「Primary Dealer Credit Facility,PDCF」,又是一項新信貸安排,旨在改善一級交易商向證券化市場參與者提供融資能力。


這個新機制就厲害,因為聯儲局打破已有94年歷史的規定,可以將借錢對象擴大至商業銀行以外的機構,大家熟悉的證券公司也可向聯儲局借錢,如法巴、瑞信和滙控旗下HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.等都合乎資格,伯老更擴大抵押品的範圍,一系列投資級的債務抵押證券都可作為此類貸款的抵押品,總之就是無所不用其極,實行全面救市,借到你話停為止。


至於金融機構要借錢的話,貼現率更只比目前3%的聯邦基金利率高出0.25厘,即3.25厘,實行大借平錢,最長更可達120天。如果議息後再大減1厘,豈不是2.25厘?


見到美國的資金拉緊,禤中怡憂慮全球各地的資金會否被美國的金融業收回,實在令人憂慮,早前話有美資行傳在香港已收縮開支,只怕空穴來風,未必無因,若本港資金也被抽緊,息口會否繼續低企呢?還可低息供樓嗎?相信有借錢的人上人要注意。


(3月18日刊於《am730》)

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