Thursday, March 13, 2008

伯老以身試按

多條央行大水喉齊齊開喉幫手救火,大市立即配合,像為奄奄一息的美股做人工呼吸,而歐股和亞股更像大灑楊枝甘露,齊齊造好。


市場料經此一役,美國下周減息由最多0.75厘縮減至0.5厘,依然有得減,銀行和地產股怎不造上去,滙豐控股(005)續挾高,低位撈貨的醒目投資者,相信可財息兼收,賺股價向上和末期股息也。藍籌地產股升勢更厲害,恒隆地產(101)一日彈近6.5%至27.1元,新鴻基地產(016)上揚4%,見124.6元。由於內地加息在望,國壽(2628)等保險股的投資收入料有幫補,當然成為上升一分子。


今次升市,全賴美國聯儲局主席伯南克泵水,甚至可以用攬上身去形容。但首先要學英文詞彙縮寫:「TSLF」(Term Securities Lending Facility),傳媒譯作定期證券借貸工具或定期證券借貸機制,相信按字面意思考慮。


聯儲局藉這個TSLF,讓金融機構捧更多樣化的抵押品來融資,而合資格抵押品包括獲AAA評級的住宅按揭抵押債券等,意味合資格的次按抵押債券也屬抵押品,幫人幫到底,可見他希望消除市場對這類產品的決心勇氣有多大,能令這個金融資金系統能夠重新啟動。


禤中怡立即望望滙控之前也攬上身的兩隻SIV,即結構投資工具,直至07年底合共資產達407億美元(約3,174億港元),屬於AAA級的資產達283億美元(約2,207億港元),近69%,當中屬於美國次按的資產,且全部屬AAA級的,涉約20.42億美元(約159億港元),那麼可否借些少幫一幫呢?
需注意的是,這次泵水的貸款期限只有28日,並非長期性的,意味只是舒緩短暫的陣痛,且那些住宅按揭抵押債券評級於期間出現變化的話,究竟應如何處理又是大問號,所以這個信貸緊縮問題,相信仍有手尾跟,但現時大家先享受彈上去的短暫興奮。


見到伯老今趟攬上身,勾起香港的世衛總幹事陳馮富珍當時做政府公務員時,大喊:「我日日都食雞!」怎料轉眼已周圍撲殺雞隻的回憶,未知歷史會否在伯老身上重演。


大行有水泡救,可惜有些公司連反彈機會也失去,像曾經大做汽車音響的東強電子(615)最終難逃厄運,因為由06年4月27日停牌至今足足超過22月,仍無法拿出拯救公司方案,明日起正式被除牌,意味股東又要股票當牆紙。


至於曾由葉劍波打理的海域集團(1220)也邁向除牌命運,自06年7月17日停牌以來,轉眼又20個月,一直未有提交可行的復牌建議,故進入除牌程序第三階段,最快於9月12日取消上市地位,恐怕只有盼望有白武士出來挽救了。幸好同系的海域化工(2882)已有投資者話有興趣參與重組,股東絕對希望吉人天相。


(3月13日刊於《am730》)

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