Monday, March 10, 2008

廠家慘迎政策市

港股跟隨美股愈跌愈有,經濟專家也憂慮美國經濟陷衰退,屆時股市怎會好呢?若果樓市負資產情況同香港當年一樣,意味通縮恐怖來臨,相信又要過幾年緊日子,但最驚的,就是油價不肯回落,滯脹認真難救,又逢通脹向上,經濟增長又放緩,甚至衰退,真的是趨淡之風停不了,好友只有暫避風頭。


禤中怡昨日找廠商朋友問個好,因為新年假期結束,又要準備搏殺過。豈知朋友就憂慮海外市場若果真的不濟,然後內部又受諸多問題困擾,便真的是內外「夾攻」。


這位朋友在內地廣東省生產塑膠配件多年,供電子產品商組裝產品用,佢話廣東省長黃華華講珠三角加工製造業企業沒有大量外遷,只是要做好產業升級的講法,實在令人費解。朋友話,可能廠家迫遷並非簡單小事,也要一年半載時間,實況未開始反映吧!現時連他自己也要籌劃搬廠,但作為中小企,工作一籮籮,政府卻是叫一聲就要做,盡快做,試問誰能一步到位呢!


他解釋,環保問題的確是深圳市政府考慮因素之一,希望趕廠家入內陸如湖南好過,但勞動法影響就更嚴重,並坦言有員工同佢講,其實喜歡加班,因為有加班費,變相多賺一點早回鄉,為應付政府檢查,過往工廠更安排「兩張工卡」應付,希望達到雙贏局面。不過,資訊流通容易,員工知道有勞動法後,覺得自己議價能力強,廠家朋友更坦言自己間廠的罷工叫加薪有加劇情況,雙贏隨時變雙輸,皆因做廠無著數,還有人捱嗎?


面對這種場面,也難怪玖龍紙業(2689)主席張茵女士上周大叫救命,在全國政協會議上,話要更改勞動法的規定,希望政府網開一面,實在要為業界爭取發出聲音,否則當個政協作啥!禤中怡並非資本家,在內地無廠房,無工人,故並非為人講好說話,但若果有留意近兩周的新聞,不少時事節目、甚至《亞洲周刊》等也探討勞動法對商界的影響,就知問題嚴重性。廠家朋友更話,做廠的自然會明白張女士的苦心。


若果再看看上周福田實業(420)話,將位於東莞的紡織印染合資子公司生產線逐步轉移,轉往江蘇省鹽城市的新廠房,就知道要轉變策略應付,即使講明08年8月底年度業績要為該項目資產作減值,引致虧損也在所不計。


該股股價上周應聲下挫,由1.58元直插,最低曾見1.31元,上周五收市報1.43元,仍較之前不見了近9.5%。對本來已雪上加霜的工業股已經很慘,因為今年出口市場確實勢危,現在還添勞動法一招,所以大家要留意那些在廣東省一帶設廠的工業股,究竟如何應付,以及會否步福田後塵,速速撤離,避免業務受影響。


(3月10日刊於《am730》)

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