Tuesday, March 11, 2008

馬來選舉累股民

大市是否陰陽怪氣?以為難免一跌,恒指距離35點就破22,000點,好友趁滙控(005)傳研究內地上市這個遙不可及的消息展現強勢,成交額佔大市近5%!更挾淡倉從低位抽上,難怪恒指不但收復失地,更抽高逾203點至22,705點,成為亞洲區內唯一報升的股市指數,似乎又忘記美國陷衰退邊緣。


跌得最傷的亞洲股市原來是馬來西亞,其吉隆坡綜合指數竟然曾重創高達10.71%!的確,指數差不多一日內不見了一成,下瀉130.01點至1,296.33點,馬來西亞證券交易所更要立即啟動,於02年3月開始使用的跌停板系統,於下午2時58分暫停買賣股票和衍生產品,希望市場冷靜一下,然後在3時58分再開市,果然大家掉頭買貨的較多,收市時將跌幅略為收窄至9.5%,收市滑落123.11點至1,173.22點。


可知道大馬剛完成國會大選,執政黨巫統所領導的國民陣線佔國會議席大減,最重要是失去三分二的絕對優勢,議案要過關就不易,引發投資者信心問題,畢竟政經關係絲絲緊扣,當大家憂慮政局緊張,自然第一時間撤退,特別是那些外資基金更不用講感情,持盈保泰最重要。


執政黨失去支持票,主因以往支持他們的華人和印度人感到利益受打壓而不滿所致。禤中怡記得曾在吉隆坡搭的士,同華人司機談起,那司機竟慨嘆,話華人擁有經濟力量,但人口增長速度唔夠馬來人快,日後華人的地盤只會被馬來人佔據。初時不明所以,現在回想起來,倒覺平民百姓更了解「現實」國情。


話今年是全球政治市亦不為過,因為多個政府換莊,雖然有人成功冧莊(西班牙執政工人社會黨)、有些更有趣地找替身做莊(俄羅斯普京也),稍後確有多個換莊可能,近的當然是台灣馬英九鬥謝長廷,之前台灣股市已因政府可能由綠轉藍而炒上了,像主要投資台灣證券的JF台灣基金於今年以來也有4.41%回報,其他股市亦難免受政局影響。


更關係整個環球經濟的,定必是美國總統選舉,新一屆總統看似可呼風喚雨,查實日後要肩負救市大任,稍一不慎,美國拖累其他盟國經濟,大家就慘了。


(3月11日刊於《am730》)

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