Monday, March 17, 2008

施永青大減磅

大市彈高,即掉頭回落,顯見上升已乏力,美國次按又肆虐,望到隻貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns)股價上周五直插水,即使話有銀行幫手注資,虛怯心態已成。記得中信證券去年用10億美元(約78億港元)向貝爾斯登認購可轉換信託證券,有權換成貝爾斯登股份,奈何公司股價江河日下,行使機會凍過水,連筆注碼能否收回也成問題。


本周美國有多宗大新聞,足以左右股市,大家要留神,最重要的當然是聯儲局議息,而大型投資賓架又要揭底牌,貝爾斯登於美國時間,周一派第一季成績表,而雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)齊齊於周二講首季業績,已經有分析員話高盛要撇帳30億美元(約234億港元),但並非為次按投資撇帳, 而是為貸款及私人投資的資產減值,最神奇的是,連招股時已入股的工商銀行(1398)股份也要減值,因為近期累積跌了14%。


氣氛要轉好,可能要望天打卦,倒不如走去聽聽專家指點迷津更穩妥,跟足與否,自行決定,起碼多一個意見作參考,不致像恒指般被陰乾。在剛過去的周末,禤中怡走去港麗酒店,聽滙豐銀行同法興主辦的《08第二季投資全攻略》。中原集團主席施永青先登場就已經「技驚四座」,從西裝袋拿出一張貓紙,彷彿有自稱冒牌股神四叔的風範,原來他的投資組合大幅變動,早前還佔三成比重的股票投資,竟大減至只餘半成,代表高沽貨套現,相信早已避過一劫。


手上的彈藥又如何運用呢?他將物業投資比重從四成增至五成,反映對樓市仍感樂觀,而貴金屬由一成升至兩成;外匯則輕微提高半成至兩成半,實行分散投資。他更語出驚人話美國經濟並非衰退咁簡單,皆因:「衰退就衰硬!」但最恐怖的是,分分鐘惡化至成為經濟蕭條!


另一位專家的建議亦值得思考,他就是法興證券衍生工具部亞洲區(日本除外)董事李錦(Edmond)也。Edmond提出的投資策略就只有簡單4個字:「固定投資」。


看似簡單,箇中奧妙運用得宜就要經訓練,更要從管理投資心態開始。首先,他建議買股票前,先限制一個金額,如用10萬元分5注,每注2萬元,然後做功課分析後,一隻股票只可買一次,即不可「溝貨」,而此點更是必須嚴守的紀律。


至於投資情緒亦相當重要,因為大市有上有落,看著股價升兩格(價位)就開心不已,但又不知沽定揸,最慘是股價跌了4格就莫奈何,難怪他大膽話,輸贏都驚的人,可能是最易輸的人。如何解決呢?簡單一點就是定下止賺和止蝕位,只要股價一日在所定範圍內波動,就毋須理會那麼多,心情自然不會受大市左右,輕鬆投資享增值。


(3月17日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

At 12:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

能否修改一下文中中信证券与贝尔斯登战略合作的内容。请见下面所附的公告。谢谢!


(600030)“中信证券”公布关于与贝尔斯登战略合作事项进展情况公告


  中信证券股份有限公司在三届十九次董事会通过的关于与贝尔斯登全面战略合作的有关事项公告中,提及公司与贝尔斯登拟议中的业务合作计划,其中包括了公司与贝尔斯登拟进行的相互投资安排。双方就相关事项进行磋商,经公司三届二十三次董事会审议后将相关工作进展情况在公司2007年年报中予以披露。公司考虑到近日贝尔斯登与摩根大通等金融机构达成融资安排和流动性情况的公告及贝尔斯登公司股价大幅下跌等因素,现将公司与贝尔斯登拟议中的相互投资及业务合作的相关工作进展情况补充公告如下:
  1、自2007年11月2日披露上述公告以来,公司与贝尔斯登就相互投资及业务合作等事项持续进行了沟通。截止目前,双方就协议主要条款的沟通及尽职调查工作尚未结束,尚未签署任何正式协议,更未支付任何价款,公司不能保证未来能够达成最终协议。
  2、公司注意到自上述公告以来,次级债危机仍在演变之中以及美国资本市场的震荡,并始终密切关注该等风险对本次交易的影响。公司将根据贝尔斯登近日发生的情况,对贝尔斯登的最新情况和拟议中的相互投资及业务合作计划进行综合评估。
  3、公司将根据事态发展的最新趋势和上述评估结果,确定与贝尔斯登战略合作的方向和下一步的工作。若双方达成任何正式协议,公司将依照法定程序审议并及时公告披露有关信息。
  公司发布的信息以在指定信息披露媒体《中国证券报》、《上海证券报》、《证券时报》及上海证券交易所网站(http://www.sse.com.cn)上刊登的公告为准。

 
At 5:03 PM, Blogger 禤中怡 said...

有關上市公司的公告,須經過大批專業人士及法律專家的意見所寫成,內裡蘊含不少專業用及法律用語,恕在下才疏學淺,愛莫能助也。

 
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