Friday, March 14, 2008

聰明未必有著數

昨日話聯儲局主席伯南克將次按風暴攬上身,只是做人工呼吸和灑楊枝甘露,紓緩短暫陣痛,料有手尾跟,估不到效力只得24小時,市場信心消失得那麼快,相信大戶要伯老減息1厘方罷休,所以用插水行動表明心跡。


當然,見到日圓匯價急升,兌美元輕易衝破101日圓關口就知道炒家要走貨了,沽盤湧現,可見港股等亞洲區股市成為大戶提款機。難為禤中怡的朋友剛出發往日本度蜜月,奈何日圓兌港元見7.79港元,差不多也等於值1美元,荷包今趟認真是雙重支出,除了蝕匯率差價外,還有那筆購物開支呢!


大戶近期趁大市彈一彈高就趁勢走貨,只是昨日走得特別兇狠,且看藍籌股的狼狽相便知,招商局國際(144)和信和置業(083)竟在1日間跌了逾10%,華潤創業(291)亦不見了9.33%,彷彿炒賣細價股一樣,機構大戶不問價地洗倉。


為甚麼資金要撤離呢?資產價值下跌,所借資金作槓桿炒賣能力自然被削弱,兼且人人無錢,銀行必追孖展,難怪美國財長保爾森終於開腔,點出核心問題所在,就是要美國金融機構提高本身資本,繼續進行借貸業務,兼且要實施更嚴厲的法則去規管按揭行業,而信貸評級機構對按揭抵押證券等發行商,維持健全資產實力,也要把好關。


在現狀未有改變前,先有投資集團的投資出事。美國凱雷集團(Carlyle Group)走去荷蘭阿姆斯特丹的泛歐證券交易所(Euronext Amsterdam N.V),將一隻按揭抵押證券基金(Carlyle Capital Corp.,CCC)上市,股本加抽水後,手拿10億美元(約78億港元),資金投資屬半官方機構的房地美和房利美的AAA評級按揭抵押證券,本來屬穩陣之選,但竟然獅子開大口,實行以小控大,採用高達逾20倍的投資槓桿策略,一下子控制了高達217億美元(約1,692億港元)規模的按揭抵押證券!


下場如何,不用多說,自然被人追孖展,但賣資產贖身不易,因為資產價值下跌,而且要找人接貨,難免要有顯著折讓方可,債權人終於按捺不住,重組貸款的談判拉倒,要接管所有資產,令CCC股價從上周的93港元,昨日開市初段只餘10港元,足足消失了89%!


CCC股東的投資恐怕凍過水,但究竟還有多少個像這種超級槓桿的投資大煲會陸續爆開,才是最重要,因為優良的資產也會變月下貨,屆時市場信心可能進一步掉進谷底。


話說回來,凱雷這間投資集團有多厲害,香港人可能不太熟悉,只要望望其投資隊伍,具備200名工商管理碩士(M.B.A.)和33名法律博士(J.D.)等,做其客戶,甚至加入其投資陣營也會覺得十分放心,但聰明人聚在一起,會否等如可合體變超人嗎?


(3月14日刊於《am730》)

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