Wednesday, March 19, 2008

中美不同路

美國財金官員果然厲害,將死馬當活馬醫,令周一美國道瓊斯工業平均指數竟然可以由重插近200點,變成反升21點收市,合乎財金官員的期望和苦心。


當然,陷水深火熱的貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns)以超級折讓價被摩根大通(JP Morgan)吞併,股東就認真可憐,看見股價在2月初還有92.89美元,估不到上周五只剩30美元,不見了67.7%,但低處未算低,周一收市更僅餘4.81美元,短短一日間蒸發了殘餘市值的83.9%!相信日後即使併入摩根大通,貝爾斯登這個名稱仍可寫入單日跌幅最大的美股行列,只是用上股東的血汗將紀錄「名留青史」。


那邊要救火,內地政府卻要撲火,中國人民銀行「終於」加銀行存款準備金率0.5%。為甚麼用「終於」?因為大家期望央行快點採取行動,盡快消除這個不明朗因素,況且上次也是在1月16日公布加存款準備金率,並於同月的25日起實施,即使是去年9月至12月期間,也是在相若時間提高存款準備金率,只是上月可能受雪災影響,先望清楚情況再作決定。


至於下一個令人期待的變數,就是調整存貸息率時間。上次人行調整存貸息率已經是去年12月20日,可見在過去3個月也未有任何舉動。若果美國真的大幅減息,實行沽空美元,然後買入息率較高的人民幣,是否有賺錢新途徑呢?當然,投資無穩賺,小心小心。


落實加存款準備金率,意味內地銀行可動用存款作放貸的金額持續減少,而貸款息率卻未能向上,淨利息收入難免會受影響。不過,看見招商銀行(3968)盤數,存款仍增長21%至9,435億元人民幣,反映存款上升速度,較加準備金率凍結金額上升速度為高,而招商銀行貸款總額依然增長19%,可見供貸款的彈藥未受影響。


不過,內地股市被溫總早上一嚇,就跌個四腳朝天,港股更續走低,恒指在中午更一度穿20,600點,低見20,572點,但似乎有春江鴨料內地加準備金率,兼且話美國大幅減息,缸邊傳到話聯儲局要大減1.25厘,實行大刀闊斧救市,難怪在低位抽上近千點,但需注意的是,藍籌股並非全面造好。長江基建(1038)業績對辦,又增派末期息,自然成為防守佳品,觸發股價急彈9.6%至35.5元,而受惠減息的地產股之前遭摧殘後,又見顯著反彈,新世界發展(017)及信和置業(083)中期純利大升,股價漲4%和6%。


至於周一被投資大戶洗倉洗到照鏡的玖龍紙業(2689)似乎有高人幫助,儘管交投股份由周一的1億股,增至昨日的1.25億股,股價能在低位回穩,收市反升8.3%至6.92元。當然,要收復所有失地也要考慮宏觀環境,但見尾市有大手在7元排隊,都是一球一球錢掃貨,認真神奇。


(3月19日刊於《am730》)

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