Friday, March 28, 2008

超人先勝一仗

禤中怡去年已話和記黃埔(013)零售業務大節流(07年8月23日),見到和黃07年度業績報告,估不到該業務未計利息和稅項前盈利(EBIT)立即升36%,幫公司多賺10億元,當中就包括整合簡化業務。對比輕耍財技買股票投資而言,這些屬辛苦錢,表現已算不俗。

另外,該股有巨額特殊利潤入帳,當然更要左撇右撇,望望為3G上客成本等支出,以及應付英國和意大利3G網絡於當地的互連問題,合共撇帳加撥備逾78億元,就可預期3G盤數日後更靚仔,若互連問題解決,有回撥也說不定。

但是,實在不能不佩服李嘉誠的賺錢眼光,單是和黃靠賣股票,就已經帶來利息和稅前盈利(EBIT)高達138.5億元!盈利維持增長應記一功。究竟是他睇淡股市而沽貨離場,還是他走貨而累街坊,真是雞蛋同雞的問題。股市遊戲的好玩之處,就是好淡不一致才有成交,這仗似乎李超人先勝四叔。

昨日股市就示範神奇之處,國企股指數被內地股市一嚇,收市報跌31點,與恒指上升47點比較,竟出現背馳情況。若果對國企股指數後市有獨特見解,又想小試牛刀的話,散戶投資者就要留意下周一出現的新戰場,皆因港交所(388)正式推出小型H股指數期貨也。

自從推出細期,即小型恒指期貨後,由於上落每點才10元,即是按金只是2.9萬元,入場費較少,近兩天的每日成交量也逾3萬張,雖然有轉倉成分,但交投表現不俗,所以小型H股指數期貨,或叫做細H期登場,確有發揮空間。

港交所話每張細H期「基金按金」2.173萬元,「維持按金」為1.7384萬元,比細期入場費還低。交易成本亦有著數,因為講明豁免首6個月證監徵費,而每張合約交易費用為2元。禤中怡同證券界朋友談起,佢話這種新產品能否成功,相信要留意第一個月的交投表現,如可吸納一定數量的倉底,有大批交易對手進場,投資者又多一個新投資工具。由於炒指數上落,吸引各為不同目的而入場的投資者,不管是投資賓架為套戥、對沖,甚至是炒家都有。

證券界朋友更話細H指打和點與大H期相若,舉例每張大H期上落每點50元,所有費用合共才123元,代表持好倉的話,如果升3點就賺150元,扣除費用仍有27元落袋。用細H期買賣,上落每點10元,費用要47.6元,反映持好倉盤,只要升5點就賺50元,便可收回費用。證券界朋友更補充,對手愈多愈好,因為買賣差價(spread)就可以愈窄,買入賣出更容易,像期指交投差價有5點的距離,但有時買賣差價會縮窄至3點,意味能夠成交機會增多。

當然參與指數期貨並非純粹基本分析一間公司,想參與買賣就要留意市場情況等,不能單看交易成本的。

(3月28日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

At 9:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

習慣了每天看禤先生的文章, 今天看不到, 有點失落的感覺...
是否改為逄星期二,四才為am730寫文章?

 
At 11:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

今天找了成份AM730都唔見你的文章, 真的有點奇怪啊。因為上星期五,並不見到你話會暫停唔寫Blog..

 
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