Wednesday, March 26, 2008

先跟拍子起舞

見到斌仔有新專欄在《am730》登場,大談生命,值得大家每逢周一捧場拜讀,定必有些寶貴的價值可落袋。

幫手賣完廣告,還是說說老本行,近日令我最佩服的,始終是美國財金官員,簡單虛晃兩招,美股立即飛升,大家又再喝采,全球大升市也。望清楚,明明是摩根大通(JP Morgan)超低殘價購貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns),竟然在短短幾日間,可以將收購價大幅調高4倍,又願意注入資金,兼承擔部分虧損,整項交易翻天覆地改變,奈何貝爾斯登被收購的代價,依然屬低水平。

至於做摩通的股東也好不到哪裡去,且看這間大型國際金融集團在處理這宗交易上,有否認真做盡職審查(due diligence),否則怎會出現如此戲劇性場面,儘管有些收購建議常見提價,希望增強成功收購的勝算,可惜今次真的令人覺得,政府要借商業模式操作去拯救一間財困金融機構,但又處處見其幕後蹤影,試問日後還有投資信心嗎?

當然,無沾手貝爾斯登的投資者,就懶理那些善後工作,先跟拍子起舞,若果選擇即日走幾轉,多少總有斬獲,單是炒台資企業股兼三通概念股已忙到停不了,像航空和相關股份就成為推上的地區,單是隻北京首都機場(694)竟彈21.3%,接火棒者惟有祝你好運。無疑有一球一球錢買貨,但實質大手成交只有44宗,共涉575萬股,佔該股全日成交股數的22.75%,其他碎濕濕的股份來自何方呢?升得那麼急,自然有原因解畫配合,就是奧運將來臨,機場生意不會差,兼且日後准台北起飛,北京降落,機場使用率定必上升,所以要炒上去也。

至於中國國航(753)和東方航空(670)股價亦上漲15%和7.3%,另一可望受惠的南方航空(1055)也大升近11%,果然是飛機未著陸,股市就先行。要記著,馬英九當選總統是事實,三通則仍存在變數,內地取態相當重要,要知道是概念,就代表可能會隨時消失的,難道大家忘記了去年港股直通車這個教訓?

另一項要注意的是,適逢期指轉倉盤增加,大戶先趁勢挾淡倉,所以抽上速度較快,只見即月期指成交逾10萬張,相信未來兩天轉倉未停。但現貨收市後,期指在22,560點高位乏力,最後10分鐘更掉頭向下,令收市只能企穩在22,470點,未能進一步挑戰高位,或許純粹是技術性調整。其實,大市短期不像完全有明確方向,短炒持隔夜盤的投資者,在大市波動的環境中,兇險程度明顯增加。且看美國又話部分地區樓價,於今年1月比去年同期下跌了10%,當地消費信心指數更跌至5年新低,可見好壞消息困擾投資者情緒,遲早亦會反映在股市之上。


(3月26日刊於《am730》)

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