Wednesday, May 26, 2010

魚雷vs鬥牛

周一期指收市低水,已擔心淡友是否部署新一輪淡倉,怎知歐洲債務危機又輪到西班牙受到狙擊,提供股市走低的機會,恒指昨日便裂口低開高達350點,至19,317點,之後在低位徘徊,然後又到南韓局勢緊張,日韓兩地股市即挫,韓圜更吃了瀉藥般,進一步推低恒指穿19,000點收市,報18,985點,重創682點,跌幅更屬區內第二大,達3.4%,僅次於新興市場的印尼所錄3.6%跌幅而已。

牛熊證市場更屬屍橫遍野,多達71隻牛證被打靶,當中恒指牛證便佔42隻,即使收回價低見19,000點也守不住,而滙豐控股(005)失守70元,也引致4隻收回價介乎70至71元的滙控牛證遭收回。

見過有張新聞圖片,西班牙一名鬥牛士於上周五慘遭蠻牛的利角從喉部插入,由口穿出,場面相當恐怖,莫非隱喻人被「牛」欺?當然,純粹巧合,但西班牙中央銀行公布,第二度接管當地儲蓄銀行Cajasur,便引發新一輪金融危機,令歐洲股匯又再大散。其實,Cajasur這間銀行於金融海嘯後出事,本來打算與另一間銀行合併,可惜最終失敗,問題是Cajasur僅佔當地銀行業的資產約0.6%,今年首季虧損1.1億歐元(約10.7億港元),規模不算巨大,但大家已屬驚弓之鳥,輕易觸發股災。

除了鬥牛,南韓天安艦調查報告確認該艦是被北韓重型魚雷所擊沉後,南韓強勢總統將北韓視為主要敵人,切斷對北韓的貿易和援助,而北韓領袖金正日亦下令部隊備戰,實行先開口水戰,但已觸發南韓股市和韓圜暴挫,大家沽貨離場,特別是海外資金單日已賣出總值逾5,800億韓圜(逾36億港元)股份,先避風頭,這種恐慌性拋售更拖累區內股市。

同投行界朋友談起,他亦話今趟跌市與以往不同,就是叫「sell」的多,真的不多見買盤的order,反映投資者連趁低吸納也不敢,似乎戒心極重。唯一叫人慶幸的是,自金融海嘯後,大家已經將槓桿比率大幅下調,代表借錢谷大彩池的情況已有收斂,即使對沖基金的槓桿率也較以往為低,反映風險相對較少,避免不問價亂拋情況蜂擁出現。

其實,除了股市之外,債市同樣悲壯,還記得《Sell in May and go where?》嗎?若果沽出股票,轉投債券市場,一樣受襲,朋友談到,早前多隻內房股發行優先票據,息率相當吸引,如花樣年(1777)的票面息率便達14%,而碧桂園(2007)那批優先票據息率也有11.25%,可惜投資者一樣擔心,寧願套現,但價格已跌了不少,即每張票面值100元的債券,只能夠收回逾80至90元,代表收取那些所謂「豐厚」利息,也不夠填補價值的損失部分。

儘管多國提出救市,但今次危機與金融海嘯有些不同,就是從公司層面(雷曼爆煲),提升至國家層面如希臘和歐豬五國,公司有事,尚且有政府可救,國家有事呢?中國要爭國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)話事權,但IMF出錢救財困國家,向組織成員伸手時,中國是否幫手埋單呢?想起中共前總書記江澤民就香港計劃建新機場時,聲言港府基建工程要量力而為,不能「你請客,我付鈔。」

(5月26日刊於《am730》)

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