Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Sell in May and go where?

內地勞工節假期過後,上海和深圳股市齊復市,上證綜指又回落35點至2,835.2點,跌1.2%,若非上周五微升逾2點,其實該指數已跌了7天,由上月21日收市3,033點計,累跌6.5%。除了建設銀行(939)世紀大抽水、房地產吹冷風外,近期更屢傳上調股票交易印花稅,因自08年9月調整為沽貨的投資者需繳納0.1%股票交易印花稅,而買貨的免繳印花稅後,已有一年半時間未作調整,故惹來傳聞加至0.15%水平,但維持單邊收稅。儘管財政部已澄清有關傳聞,可惜市場仍充斥一堆堆壞消息。

港股亦不能幸免,儘管美股周一收高143點,令恒指開市略挾破21,000點,可惜之後承接乏力,很快又再被推低,午後基本上在20,750至20,850點之間徘徊。不過,窩輪市場較活躍,全日成交額突破90億元,達91.2億元,佔大市比重亦由周一的15.53%增至16.43%。

踏入5月,又是「Sell in May and go away」的傳統季節,即本月沽貨,待11月初才再入市,當然很難叫投資者踏正5月1日賣出,11月1日又再買入,只是因為這段時間內,市場消息會較淡靜而已。

但原來美股的歷史也有跡可尋,因為計算道瓊斯工業平均指數,自1950年至今,在5月至10月間,每年平均升幅才0.4%,但11月至翌年4月,每年平均漲幅便達7.4%,代表每逢5月便調整一次投資策略,並轉而在5至10月間,投向債券市場的話,來自債券利息收入,以及股票增值的總回報,便會很可觀。

那麼港股的表現又是否如此呢?禤中怡略為統計04年至今的恒指走勢作參考,若果選擇10月底入市,並於翌年4月底沽貨計,可以獲得4次獲利紀錄,而輸錢的次數則為2次,反映贏面較高。不過,在4至10月間的恒指走勢方面,竟然是5次錄得增值,輸錢僅1次而已,可見成績並非太差。

若果再細看回報的話,同樣在10月底入市,然後於翌年4月底沽貨,即該段期間的恒指升幅介乎6.5%至17.8%。但是,在07年10月至08年4月底那次,卻倒退17.8%,甚至是去年10月底至今年4月底期間,恒指也要跌2.9%,不一定每次必勝。

如選擇5月離場的話,可能也失去獲利機會,因為由04年至今年為止,恒指在5月初至10月底期間,回報介乎3.4%至54%,其中07年4月至10月期間,恒指便上升高達11,034點之多,而時間近一點看,單是去年4月底至10月底,即全球飽受金融海嘯衝擊後,各地中央銀行和政府大力放水,解救信貸危機,算是挽救全球經濟免於崩潰,從而令全球股市狂升,當時恒指也錄增加6,232點,漲幅足足達40%之多,如果大家因此而錯過這次機會的話,整體回報難免受到影響。

另一個問題是,今年低息環境究竟還可以維持多久,恐怕無人知,一旦銀行退市加息,債券價格定必下跌,若現時撤離股市,轉投債市,買債券又隨時會輸,面對這種境況,難怪連美國的投資者也話:「Sell in May and go where?」

(5月5日刊於《am730》)

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