Tuesday, March 30, 2010

發CB用心良苦

恒指昨曾衝破21,300點後,又掉頭向下,收市僅報21,237點,只升184點,與2月底比較,單月累積已經增629點,但若果與本月1日的21,056點比較,則只有181點的升幅,認真濕碎,亦可見恒指在21,000點之間徘徊時間相當長,大家均等待突破。

繼招商銀行(3968)和交通銀行(3328)實行A加H股的雙邊供股集資後,工商銀行(1398)也加入集資行列,莫非去年政府拋出4萬億元人民幣去救市,各間國有銀行借錢太鬆手,故要籌錢補充資本?

此外,近來內地企業出現另一種抽水特色,就是傾向在H股市場發新股集資,但在內地A股市場卻選擇不發行新股,改為發行可換A股的債券(Convertible Bond,CB)。

首先是中國銀行(3988)計劃發行不超過400億元人民幣可換A股債券,工商銀行亦計劃發行不超過250億元人民幣的可換A股債券,無獨有偶,兩間大銀行的CB為期同樣是6年,而年息亦不逾3厘。

昨日就由中國石化(386)出擊,除向母公司買資產進軍海外之外,還建議發行不超過230億元人民幣的可換A股債券,而年期也是6年,但息率則不超過2.5厘。3間大藍籌股單是在內地發行A股CB所涉總額,已經高達880億元人民幣,規模認真不小。

最後一間國有銀行建設銀行(939)雖然未見集資,但像工行的資本充足比率達12.36%,也要出其不意地向市場籌錢,而建行的資本充足比率才11.7%,雖高於銀監會要求的11.5%水平,但試問怎會不需伸手呢?唯一目前未有伸手的原因,可能是建行需依據內地「阿爺」的指示,齊齊排隊等集資,避免產生大量資金壓力,故下半年伸手機會依然存在。

至於內地政府是次安排工行和中石化這些龍頭公司,不直接發行新A股,或許同樣擔心集資壓力對內地股市造成衝擊,故採取這種手段,讓股民放心之餘,亦不會大量製造新股流通量,避免讓股價受到壓力。當然,6年後那些CB行使與否,留待日後才解決好了。

其實,內地股市抽水一直未停,原來09年6月重新啟動IPO(新股上市)以來,去年第三季度已經合共發行38隻新股,而去年第四季度則進一步增至72隻新股之多。至於今年首季更可能有多達89隻登場,發行數量創下自1997年第三季度以來的季度新高,反映這些新股已經吸納不少資金,故無謂再在這個半封閉市場添加壓力,可見內地政府多麼用心良苦!

本來市場確期望內銀股有驚喜,而業績增長也不俗,但減派息率,以保留資金,兼且續要向市場抽水,市場或會認為是一個短期利淡因素,難免讓人憂慮該類股份難造好,加上滙豐控股(005)和中國移動(941)去年業績麻麻,要營造利好氣氛並非容易,恒指當然也較難有足夠的動力推上去。但今次不明朗因素落實後,就不宜太悲觀,且看昨日工行和中行等內銀股股價跟隨內地股市向上,且看「阿爺」是否想用A股推港股向上了。

(3月30日刊於《am730》)

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