Wednesday, March 03, 2010

銀行又開船

獅子銀行去年業績遜預期,而旗下恒生銀行(011)又大削股息,兩股沽壓可期。獅子銀行昨日全日成交金額更高達111.1億元,恐怕不計上市公司配股上板所產生的成交額計算,肯定是近年單一股份單日交投最大紀錄。

當中大手成交相當強勁,多達逾2,900宗,涉及1.1億股,即佔全日總成交股數1.37億股的約80.3%比重。而在成交量分布中,原來在股價於80.6和80.65元成交量最多,共逾2,800萬股,即在低位湧現強勁交投,究竟是血肉長城力頂,抑或是大戶角力呢?但昨日只有1隻滙控牛證收回,即使滙控股價跌穿80元而需收回的滙控牛熊證亦僅1隻而已,殺掉與否已無關痛癢。

不過,衍生產品發行商又要準備推新看淡產品應付市場需求了,因為滙控沽空股份和金額由周一的395.48萬股,涉3.4億元,一下子驟增至昨日的逾3,557萬股,所涉金額更高達逾28.7億元,分別暴漲近8倍和7.4倍,可見其未來沽壓有多厲害。

除了窩輪和牛熊證外,原來連掛鈎股票存款也向滙控埋手,而且讓小散戶也可加入。禤中怡聽聞恒生最近取得牌照,可以再向散戶賣這類產品,因為以往入場費往往高達50萬元,即使只有大戶的份兒,但這類投資者也會考慮將所有雞蛋放在一個籃子的風險,故要找足夠投資者參與確實不易,而加入散戶後,便可多一個銷售渠道,而入場費分分鐘或降低至8萬元,令吸引力增加。

至於一隻掛鈎股票存款,在行內俗稱為「船」,故推出該產品就像「開條船」般,若果產品數目多,隨時要開很多條船了。這些「船」除了由銀行本身設計和推售外,銀行亦可代其他金融機構分銷,甚至大戶自己持有重貨,即最少也有數百萬元以上的股份,亦可委託銀行幫手開「船」。

就以滙控這隻熱辣辣的主角為例,昨日便有條「船」開出,「船期」由1至3個月時間不等,並按昨日該股收市價80.55元計算,接貨價為該收市價折讓94.2%以下,即約75.8781元,若果散戶肯坐這條「船」,入場費8萬元,可以收取年息8厘,若果肯坐3個月,期間第一或第二個月的最後一日收市價高於80.55元,散戶便算提早抵岸,可以取回本金和利息,若仍未返家鄉,就以第三個月最後一日作決戰,若當日股價高於約75.8781元,散戶仍可平安登陸,否則就要收滙控股票了。

當然,期內資金可享受年息8厘回報,而風險就是以較市價為高的水平接收滙控股票,若果從長線看好投資角度而言,或者有機會見到滙控股價重越接貨價。不過,有投資界朋友話,去年便上了一條中國移動(941)的「船」,最終於同年11月底以113元接貨,而當時只值76元,唯有抱長線投資心態持有,直至昨日,該股見76.5元收市,帳面每股仍蝕47.7%,希望這條船的名稱不是鐵達尼號吧!

(3月3日刊於《am730》)

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