Tuesday, February 23, 2010

高速增長故事

虎年首次與讀者見面,先祝大家身體健康,投資有道。禤中怡還順道恭祝一位朋友剛榮升偉大的父親,祝願家庭幸福,特別是他在虎年弄瓦,各方親朋好友到賀,成功趁新年獲豐厚利是和禮物,證明父親「投資」眼光獨到,相信可以提早為小孩設立教育基金了。

市場似已消化中國和美國出雙刃,分別是人行調高存款準備金率,以及聯儲局加貼現率,畢竟調高行動屬意料之內,加上純粹邁向所謂正常水平,故並非大型負面因素,但市場最恐怖的地方,就是當大家覺得問題不大時,才是淡戶食大餐的好時機,小心被虎吞噬。

不過,坐隔夜淡倉的期指大戶先要為開市挾高逾500點至20,450點而需斬倉止蝕,全日亦漲483點至20,395點收市。成交量逾6.8萬張,未算突出。至於現貨炒大價股,滙豐控股(005)自然成為追捧對象,畢竟跌得殘,又有同業的業績好轉做範例,難免惹來大戶炒業績。至於將受調高存款準備金率所影響的建設銀行(939)和工商銀行(1398)也有支持,股價全日續漲逾1.4%,而3隻股份成交額已達逾38億元,佔主板成交額8.6%之多。

內地零售股方面,昨日有兩隻派成績表,但股價表現顯著各異。做運動用品的361度(1361)股價昨日午後咬住6.1元不墜,收市報6.21元,升3.6%,成交額逾4,738萬元,似乎看好業績表現,而收市後,該集團話,截至去年12月底止,6個月賺3.5億元人民幣,大漲1.76倍,增幅相當恐怖!至於營業額只升29.8%,但毛利率竟然在短短一年間提高10.3個百分點,至39.6%,帶動毛利上升75%,相信這才是令純利翻一番的真正原因。

禤中怡曾經在廣州最旺的購物街北京路,見到361度的燈箱廣告滿布,差不多「包」了全街般,加上其贊助該市舉辦的亞運,恐怕又成另一隻亞運概念股。不過,毛利率大幅上升的情況能否持續,而其他競爭對手亦能否出現這種利好因素,將成為炒作焦點。

至於選擇中午開市前公布全年業績的百盛(3368)亦多賺8.3%至9.1億元人民幣,本來已算不俗,奈何望望該股在05年至08年間的業績表現,純利增長幅度相當驚人,竟高達介乎24.4%至85%,市場難免會視今次份成績表不合格,而管理層的解釋是借貸成本增24%和稅務支出升15%所致。

午後開市即上演大逃亡,股價從上午收市12.16元,短短兩分鐘內即穿12元,然後直線插下,低見11.1元,收市見11.18元,全日跌6%,但單是午後時段已逆市挫8%。該股成交股數更厲害,涉逾2,384萬股,較近期每日才逾300萬股顯著大增,而單是午後成交股數便佔逾1,914萬股之多,即佔全日成交比重的八成有多。

投資者當然希望公司業績年年暴升,但高速增長能否長期持續,的確並非易事,大家上車時,也要留意落車時間。

(2月23日刊於《am730》)

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