Wednesday, January 20, 2010

第二班港股直通車?

港股昨日表演單日轉向,雖然只是一個小「V」仔,但不容忽視。原本港股開市後又續向下,以為連跌6日,一個早上最多跌125點,怎知午後又是另一個世界,恒指直線抽上,一口氣穿21,500點後,終於收復全部失地,雖然之後略為回軟,但很快又挾上去,破21,600點才收手,全日反升217點至21,677點。

望一望,原來內地銀監會話,不會直接控制內銀股的信貸額度,並且由董事會決定,打破之前政府向內銀做生意挷手挷腳的傳聞,當然,大型銀行的管理層自然明日監管機構的意思,並且會作出配合,根本毋須擔心市場掛上無形之手干預的批評。

隨後上海金融辦公室主任方星海話,上海正嘗試允許個人海外投資的試點,令「港股直通車」剛從外管局的文件架上消失後,突然又再翻生!皆因投資海外,這個一國兩制下的海外投資市場必然受惠,讓資金從「正式」渠道流入,況且上海要發展為國際金融中心,能夠成為資金外流的重鎮,有助其循序讓人民幣邁向自由兌換中,扮演重要角色,而且若流去香港,更可展現滬港合作,多於互相競爭吧!

雖然有關計劃恐怕是十劃未有一撇,但准許國民投資海外,即除了現時的合格境內機構投資者(QDII)機制,透過金融機構投資海外的基金外,又多一個投資渠道去疏導市場資金,實屬無可厚非的長遠發展趨勢。

有傳聞就有得炒,因為要投資海外,經銀行的理財部門處理機會自然較高,因為藉此可以控制和掌握資金流向,而內銀股又可多一個生意機會,況且這些內銀股各自在港早已建立橋頭堡,肥水不流別人田。像被傳聞限制全年貸款的中國銀行(3988)股價立刻彈上4%,至4.09元的全日最高位收市,而建設銀行(939)亦不失禮,上衝4%,至6.42元收市。

同證券界朋友談起,他話內銀股反彈力度不弱之餘,淡戶亦似有收斂之勢,因為從昨日的沽空數據看看,中國銀行的沽空金額為2,904萬元,與周一的1.62億元比較,大縮82%之多,而建行的沽空金額更由周一的3.13億元,急速下降至昨日僅7,709萬元,顯著減少75%,並且罕有地出現低於1億元的沽空金額。

證券界朋友指,最近每當內銀股反彈,「空降」部隊便立即出擊,畢竟有負面借口,但昨日這批「空軍」的「轟炸」力度卻顯著收縮,相信內銀股所受沽壓有紓緩的跡象,或許與市場消化有關不利因素有關。

由於內銀股造好,另一隻藍籌重磅股滙豐控股(005)便稍歇,昨日逆市回落0.56%至88.75元,並見今年以來新低,但沽空額亦已減少35%。由於花旗集團(CitiGruoup)份業績並非太差,難免讓市場憧憬,滙控於美國的業務也有不俗表現,且看會否成為今日的領頭羊,成為輪流炒作的主角。

(1月20日刊於《am730》)

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