Wednesday, January 06, 2010

群雄兼併做大刁

美股周一走高逾1.5%,亞洲股市昨日立即要支持向上,港股開市便裂口抽上269點,輕易破22,000點,雖然曾經略為回軟,但很快便一鼓作氣衝上,並且突破22,200點,可惜迫近22,300點就收油,全日收報22,279點,仍漲2%。成交額亦配合,增至逾830億元。

現貨月期指亦曾升穿22,300點水平,但現貨收市後,亦推低至22,269點,而成交合約逾7.7萬張,未算踴躍,加上周一未平倉合約僅增逾2,000張至6.7萬多張,似乎仍需累積一定倉量,才合乎大戶胃口的原則,相信大市仍要搭上去。此外,昨日有32隻熊仔率先被打靶,大部分屬恒指熊證,進一步為造上鋪路。

內地政策市更是威力無窮,兼且讓投資者忙於應付不同戰線,前日有照顧農業、控制稀土產能和開發海南島而炒作相關題材股份後,昨日則有煤炭行業重組整頓加快的消息,實行要全國性展開,變相讓大企業有併購機會的同時,亦可減少競爭對手,難怪煤炭股炒個不亦樂乎。兗州煤業(1171)股價單日衝8.5%至19.06元,當中有近270宗大手成交,部分大戶似乎看好後市,如於股價在19.2元買入23.2萬股,合共445萬元,甚至於19.24元掃入34萬股,涉654萬元,相信日日要望住內地政府網站,有新消息公布,就是炒作消息的對象。

另一個需注意的趨勢,就是併購(M&A)交易活動在年初已相當活躍,大家都急於促成交易似的,像Novartis AG向雀巢買Alcon Inc.,價值逾3,000億元,而雀巢掉頭又斥37億美元(約288.6億港元),向卡夫(Kraft Foods)買美加急凍薄餅業務,兼且講明不同卡夫爭奪賣朱古力的吉百利(Cadbury),實行成卡夫之美,讓其坐擁更多現金,向吉百利的股東拋出更優厚的「禮金」,希望達成收購。

其實,據Dealogic顯示,去年全球併購交易金額為2.3萬億美元(約17.9萬億港元),較08年跌22%,以美元計,更創04年以來新低,但當中未有計算政府採取特殊投資政策,如為救市,美國政府入股美國國際集團(AIG)等。按地區分布,美國和歐洲的併購金額分別跌10%和44%,而亞洲區市場不計日本在內,也回落了13.6%。

企業經過金融海嘯洗禮後,削肉的已削肉,集資的也完成集資,自然想買些新項目,好讓向股東交代,故積極物色擴充機會,加上銀行有水,自然一拍即合,踏入2010年便出現不少「大刁」,連高盛負責M&A的全球頭頭Gordon Dyal亦向《華爾街日報》話,如無重大衝擊,今年併購市場表現,將勝過09年。

不容忽視的,還有內地市場,華能國際(902)和大唐發電(991)過去兩日已各斥86億和13.4億元人民幣出擊收購資產,或有望帶動盈利增長,兼且他們用現金交易,可見彈藥之充足,相信這類大買賣不會停,且看會否成為大戶踢高股價的理想借口。

(1月6日刊於《am730》)

8 Comments:

At 9:06 PM, Blogger 費高 said...

本人正在研究城市電訊 (1137),並登於小弟的網誌︰http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/figo-stock,還望你們可以給我一點意見。

我立志成為一位分析員,特別喜歡研究個別公司的價值。為了踏進這個行業,我積極考取CFA (今年六月參加第三級考試),亦嘗試自己分析及投資個別股票,希望自己的成績可以讓雇主給我一個機會。我已發出了很多求職信,但好似連面試的機會也沒有。請問我還可以在哪方面努力,去達成自己的理想?

祝 身體安康

 
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