Tuesday, December 15, 2009

幫新股保薦人計數

中東金融世界像阿拉丁一千零一夜般傳奇,杜拜世界將陷債務違約之際,阿布扎比終出手,好友立即搶攻,恒指本來開市已跌逾200點,更低見21,546點,但上午收市前出現火箭升空,直線抽上破21,900點,之後午市一開,期指即日淡戶更要進一步平倉止蝕,指數亦因此續推上22,225點全日最高位,展現單日轉向的走勢。

值得注意的是,恒指收報22,085點,實際只漲183點,而期指在現貨收市後,在最後15分鐘更由22,100點衝落180點,至21,920點,反見低水165點,而即月期指成交亦達逾8.2萬張,究竟是否淡友尾市趁欠其他好消息而再出擊?

除龍頭大股交投旺之外,半新股龍源電力(916)成交額達逾26億元,成為第二大成交股份,股價更升7.7%至9.84元,見上市新高,與上周四掛牌時定價8.16元比較,短短3個交易日已經累漲20.5%,算有交代。

上月中已提及本港新股市場集資額大,隨時奪冠,原來暫時計數,已達280億美元(約2,184億港元),拿下全球冠軍,像香港足球隊勝出東亞運金牌般,值得開心,哪管對手本身表現差。

不過,並非隻隻新股都表現突出,望望英國《金融時報》,特別找專業機構造研究,發現今年有近半數由瑞銀(UBS)和美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)負責在港上市的中國公司,其股份於上市首日,股價均告下跌。

該報發現,瑞銀幫助上市的11家中國公司中,有5間公司的股價在上市首日下跌,其中4間的股價一直潛水。至於美銀美林參與的6間公司招股中,首日股價下跌的佔3間。對瑞銀來說,首日表現最糟糕的是恒盛地產(845),首日跌14.6%;而美銀美林負責上市的華南城(1668),股價首日挫22.9%,算最失威了。研究又發現,即使是摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)、瑞信(Credit Suisse)和德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)各參與5間公司招股,有關公司出現首日下跌的便各佔2間,並非「戰無不勝」。

整體而言,今年由瑞銀協助上市的11隻股票回報率為16.9%;而美銀美林協助上市的新股股價漲幅為2.6%,都算有正回報,當然,對比麥格理(Macquarie)協助上市的8間公司股價回報已達51.1%;以及花旗集團(Citigroup)的6間公司股價已上漲41.6%,瑞銀和美銀美林的表現便顯得失色了。

事有湊巧,內房股融創中國(1918)昨日便取消原定於周五上市的計劃,而擔任該股保薦人的,又是瑞銀和德意志銀行,臨近年尾,大家會否有點滯,且看太平洋保險(2601)H股這隻集資逾259億元的巨無霸股份能否力頂上市。

其實,要預測公司上市首日的股價表現的確很難,特別是碰上大市下跌時,要獨善其身著實不易,而單信保薦人亦非考慮首選,始終是小注考眼光好了。

(12月15日刊於《am730》)

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