Tuesday, November 24, 2009

零價智能手機熱

近來見到流動電話營運商的廣告有如排山倒海,不斷推介新手機的例牌動作外,竟然連走中高檔的智能手機,也迅速邁向零機價的促銷策略,實行流住血搶客,當然,促銷寬頻上網服務亦是另一個主要賣點。

無他,本港流動電話市場滲透率,經已超過100%,即代表平均每名用戶,擁有多於一部手機,若果想進一步獲得增長空間,鼓勵客戶用無線寬頻服務,肯定是動力來源之一,畢竟月費會較話音的為高,況且這幾間營運商的3G網絡發展成熟,所能處理的數據容量不低,純粹做話音的話,使用率定必尚未用盡,試問不計賺錢,每年單是支付逾5,000萬元的3G牌照費用,怎樣才能賺回來?

禤中怡近日同廠商朋友談起市道,他也大嘆走寶,因為見到手機生產商之前出現搶購原材料情況,皆因部分零部件如集成電路等,出現供不應求情況,反映手機製造市道應不俗,可惜最終未有入市追富士康(2038)等手機製造股,而該股股價由9月底的5.09元,至昨日已衝上6.73元,差不多在兩個月時間內,便累積上升32%之多,而該股昨日再升近2%。

至於TCL通訊(2618)股價亦由9月底的0.94元,昨日收市則見2.3元,大幅累升逾1.4倍,期間升了1.36元。

當然,獲美國股神巴菲特垂青的比亞迪(1211)除了汽車外,其實還有手機部件和組裝服務,可見股價向上情況,已經不用多講了。
再望望調查機構IDC披露,第三季全球手機的出貨量為2.87億部,雖然較去年同期下跌6%,但與第二季比較,卻反而升了5.6%,可見有走出谷底的跡象。

能夠出現這種反彈的情況,IDC認為,與低檔次手機產品顯著減價,引致刺激需求有關,而且手機商亦準備於第四季,推出旗艦產品,故此,預測回升趨勢將能夠持續,特別是聖誕假期臨近,消費者會否以手機作為禮物,進一步刺激需求,兼且金融海嘯的影響漸退卻,大家又會否換新機,令手機更換(replacement)市場再度活躍起來?

話雖手機股有望走出谷底,但需要留意的是,這些公司所服務的手機品牌客戶組合,是否屬於熱賣的品牌,若果碰上客戶的產品不夠突出的話,市場佔有率被對手所侵佔,手機股便會大受打擊,最經典的例子就是晶門科技(2878),過去依靠摩托羅拉所帶來的影響便知道。當然,本身研發能力亦是不容忽視。

至於目前上市的流動電話經營商如數碼通(315),以及流動兼固網業務的和記電訊香港(215),會否因此而受惠呢?

從表面上看,手機的銷售額變相是有所提升,但整體的top line(營業額)向上,零機價或引致攤銷費用亦隨之大增,儘管通訊費用也會增加,就像那些選用零機價的客戶,每月月費動輒高達298元,確實能夠令每名客戶每月平均消費額(ARPU)因此而拉高,奈何公司盈利不一定跟隨造好,因為這種手機補貼增加的情況,對流動流動電話營運商而言,不一定是好事。

(11月24日刊於《am730》)

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