Thursday, November 05, 2009

概念炒作忙不了

港股昨受兩項消息所刺激,投資者肯定忙於落盤炒幾轉,首先迪士尼公園落戶上海,雖已成為人所共知的秘密,但一批上海概念股繼續被追捧,至於有否實際益處則留作後話。

另一個就是美國股神巴菲特(Warren Buffet)一出手便重力擊出巨額銀彈,旗下巴郡拿260億美元(約2,028億港元)收購當地鐵路公司Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.(BNSF)餘下股權,成為該集團歷來最大宗收購交易,連同本身已投資該公司金額,價值更達440億美元(約3,432億港元),大家覺得股神身體力行,展視看好當地經濟。

望清楚,BNSF今年首三季純利雖跌21%,但期內未有斥巨額回購股份,令直至9月底,手頭淨現金便較去年同期大增1.4倍至11.6億美元(約90.4億港元),可見該股也屬Cash Cow,現金牛一隻,當然是無寶不落才真!

本港上市的鐵路股竟跟隨炒上,廣深鐵路(525)漲4.7%至3.29元,做鐵路相關設備和工程股如中國南車(1766)上揚3.9%、中國鐵建(1186)升2.5%,而南車時代(3898)亦彈2.1%。如果跟搭主題順風車,單是兩個概念已經忙到不可開交,但始終一句:概念落實後便欠炒作藉口,睇位離場方為上策。

談到今年的合併收購(M&A)交易市場,無疑受上半年市道非佳影響,大家均忙於先鞏固本身業務,連生存也有危機,怎可輕言出擊呢?看看湯臣路透的統計顯示,首十個月,環球M&A交易額為1.56萬億美元(約12.1萬億港元),較去年同期回落40%,當中美國自然成為重災區之一,M&A交易額與整體大市同步,跌了41%,而整個歐洲更大瀉55%,因為意大利和法國M&A交易額少了逾60%。

不過,亞洲區市場表現卻跑贏大市,不計日本市場,亞洲區併購交易額只跌17%至3,132億美元(約2.44萬億港元),當中澳洲更增長35%至1,103億美元(約8,603億港元),多少拜大家爭奪資源而引發投資潮有關。至於經濟未見起色的日本也有23%的增長,因為當地金融機構重組,以及飲料公司如麒麟集團(KIRIN)收購業務等帶動。至於內地併購市場則在區內排第三,亦有734億美元(約5,725億港元),只比去年同期下降了14%而已。

有趣的是,投資銀行在併購市場的領導地位也有顯著改變,原來摩根士丹利一下子從去年同期的第六位,躍升佔據龍頭位置,因為該行處理的併購額高達5,439億美元(約4.2萬億港元),市場佔有率更達34.8%,大增15.1個百分點,以該比率計,即每三宗交易便有一單屬大摩的囊中物。

至於隨後的高盛、花旗和摩根大通的市場佔有率均微跌,而歐洲代表的瑞信則增兩個百分點至18.5%,進佔第五位,而仍虧損的瑞銀跌勢最急,從第5位降至第9位,可見美資投行依然擁有巨大市場地位。

(11月5日刊於《am730》)

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