Wednesday, October 28, 2009

藥股亂投

股市上落徘徊,政治戰場反而更熱鬧,曾特首被慳電膽困擾後,又到弟婦捲入雷曼兄弟索償風波,面對多條戰線,施政也有難度,今次顯然慘遭圍攻,莫非又有人想他步腳痛後塵?

至於美國總統奧巴馬亦不好過,皆因人類豬流感已令該國進入緊急狀態,終於要面對真實情況。香港經歷沙士後,早已緊張應付豬流感,避免打沉經濟,但美國之前還不正視這種趨勢,直至已死逾千人才響警號,總算是後知後覺,較不知不覺為佳,至於會否像香港當年遭沙士蹂躪般,甚至引發另一場經濟災難,就要看奧巴馬的真正實力了。

當然,歐美始終仍屬強國,即使採購疫苗也有其競爭優勢,像法國早已訂購9,400萬劑豬流感疫苗,而美國今次加速為國民注射豬流感疫苗,又一次刺激亞洲區內的藥股急升。

例如日本「鹽野義製藥」,其股價於昨日上漲3%,而南韓製藥企業Green Cross股價表現就更厲害,單日急增高達14%之多,見全日最高位收市。原來該公司最大賣點,就是擁有美國食品藥物管理局緊急授權,可供使用的抗流感新藥在南韓的獨家生產及經銷許可權。

至於內地股市也出現類似炒藥品相關類別股份情況,在上海股市,在十大升幅股份中,竟然佔了6隻與藥業有關,當中最大增幅股份為浙江康貝恩製藥,全日上升10%至11.42元人民幣最高位收市,而中國醫藥和天壇生物亦分別上揚9.98%及9.83%,即使國藥控股(1099)旗下只是從事藥品批發、保健食品銷售的國藥集團藥業股份,其A股股價也能躋身十大升幅股份的第十位,單日就增加了6.78%。

至於深圳股市方面,經營藥品的海王生物和從事生物製藥的華蘭生物股價都升超過10%,輕易佔據升幅榜前列位置,即使只是兼做保健食品的萊茵生物,其A股股價也可在這場藥股升浪中分一杯羹。

由於港股昨日假期休市,恐怕今日繼續炒消息股,如廣州藥業(874)在內地A股便升1.4%至7.95元人民幣收市,山東新華製藥(719)的A股亦微增0.57%。

由於炒消息,市場一於懶理真實情況,只要和「藥」拉上關係的,便成大戶炒作對象,究竟是否生產豬流感疫苗經已變得不重要,因為屆時大戶可以話,健康成為市民所關注的最重要事情,當然要提升抵抗力,買些強身補健的藥品,也可間接帶動具備銷售網絡的企業可以增加銷售。

正如國藥控股般,上市略多於一個月時間,股價已炒上27.4元,較招股定價16元累漲高達71.2%,而按中期業績增長44%計,每股盈利為0.29元人民幣,而假設全年維持該表現,即每股盈利0.58元人民幣,保守計即相等於約0.638港元,即現價市盈率達42.9倍,不可謂不驚人。懂得炒消息的,當然最理想,否則分分鐘接火棒,屆時要買定燙火膏「療傷」了。

(10月27日刊於《am730》)

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