Tuesday, October 06, 2009

期指好友挾你300點

澳洲央行加息0.25厘至3.25厘,大家驚退市,擔心收緊銀根,但歐美經濟仍差,難齊齊加息,相信唯有繼續過「寬鬆」日子。過去美元弱勢,禤中怡覺得大戶拿來做套息交易(Carry Trade),實屬優質對象,即是借美元炒其他資產,當中港元匯價與美元掛鈎,若大戶炒港股,他日美元匯價轉強,將港元換回美元,然後平美元沽倉也不會有太大影響,難怪港股造上。

同證券界朋友談起,他亦認同,如3月美匯指數開始回落,港股跟手亦向上,但今日資產價格已升不少,實在不容忽視美元匯價掉頭反彈。但大戶要造淡也無所不用其極,如話中東多國想不用美元做石油交易貨幣,想用一籃子貨幣取代部分功能,變相對美元需求減少,即再踩美元多一腳也。

至於澳洲能夠加息,當然因得天獨厚,地底有寶藏,資源生意又有內地鼎力支持,自然幫助脫離金融海嘯的衝擊,但不代表當地經濟已經完全好轉,況且澳洲央行自08年9月至今年4月期間,當地累積削減利息多達4.25厘之多,更曾經有3次,每次劈足1厘,去刺激經濟,反映今次加0.25厘,實際相當溫和,至於是否展開加息周期,則要望一望,但澳元息口與其他貨幣相比,息差已見優勢,在水向低流情況下,澳元難免續受追捧。

至於大市本來齊齊被看淡,近期大家要低望19,800點,兼且更有澳洲加息跟尾,理應要走低,但在出其不意之際,好友又在20,550點附近出擊,在最後45分鐘抽上超過300點之多,恐怕挾死不少淡友,兼且收市報20,828點,較現貨恒指收報20,811點還高水17點,今日淡友可能放棄在該位做倉,大市高開機會大。

昨日談到證監會採取執法行動,將數年前違反法例的投資界人士繩之於法,肯定有警惕作用,叫那些專業投資界人士不要將一生功名斷送。股壇長毛David Webb昨日更向證監會進諫,話該會原來無聲無息地,停止披露成功檢控那些違反證券披露條例的細節如被告名稱和受影響的上市公司等,要求恢復公布詳細情形。

根據現行機制規定,擁有上市公司5%或以上股權的投資者便要公開披露,藉此提升企業透明度,但亦有人隱瞞持股量,若果貨源集中,難免有能力將股價舞高弄低,所帶來的好處自然不在話下,而其他股東和投資者卻蒙在鼓裡。

David Webb認為,有關違反法例的案件雖然已交法院處理,而證監會亦披露已排期聆訊的檢控個案,但仍欠缺所涉及的上市公司及有關被告名稱等細節。為何披露詳情那麼重要呢?股壇長毛解釋,若違反法例的是上市公司的話,投資者在投資前,可以先留意有關公司的內部企業管治水平,若果是公司董事或主要股東隱瞞持股的話,也可自行判斷有關人士究竟是不小心,還是刻意隱瞞,畢竟今日講透明度,況且成功「打老虎」,證監會多邀功也非壞事吧!

(10月7日刊於《am730》)

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