Wednesday, September 16, 2009

「息」字頭上一把刀

上周六認真忙,因王SIR(王冠一教授)又舉行投資研討會,今年更升級,由九龍灣展貿,一下子轉去灣仔君悅酒店,兼且佔用整個大禮堂,每張門票索價亦由480元大漲1倍至1,000元,實行找有意投資的「有心人」捧場,見到除一兩個中間位無人願坐外,基本上可以用人頭湧湧形容,相信超過850人也不為過。

一場研討會竟然安排由中午12時起,直落4個小時,僅10分鐘時間休息,幸好用過午餐,否則要食附送的糕點填肚了。

還記得去年12月,當時為時富金融資料研究部董事的羅尚沛在研討會認為,要揀就要選支柱股如內地銀行、電訊及保險股,因為政府無理由讓他們倒下。禤中怡望望去年12月5日收市價,工商銀行(1398)當時為4.07元,與昨日收市報5.89元比較,增44.7%、中國移動(941)當時報75.5元,較昨日收報76.5元雖僅升1.3%,但中國人壽(2628)當時報21.6元,較昨日收市價34.2元足足升發58.3%之多,反映這個投資組合回報不俗。

至於王SIR當時亦建議買中國龍頭股,同樣命中目標,並叫人買金,以及看好油價。以金價曾破1,000美元,與年底約865美元計,已漲15%,而油價曾於年底見36美元,而近日油價曾見逾70美元看,更接近翻了一番,若果入場人士照單全收,相信已經成為衰退中的大贏家了,這亦難怪他的門票叫價千元仍有捧場客,皆因這筆支出對比回報,分分鐘小之又小。

那麼今年王SIR及他的夥伴又有何見解呢?禤中怡幫大家省點錢,洩露些少玄機,以供參考,但記緊投資環境隨時改變,自己要消化內裡乾坤。僑豐期貨業務發展董事總經理林賽盈先講3樣心水投資,首選是天然氣,因為價格回落至偏低水平,畢竟趁低吸納遠比高追風險為低,而該商品需求周期性穩定,故看好前景,第二就是黃金,因為需求不會少,有助抗衡貨幣貶值,而第三項投資產品則是農產品,因為美國要刺激出口的話,佔全球供應量47%的玉米必有利,價格有望造好。

若嫌期貨難做,相信現為時富金融中國資本投資部董事的羅尚沛的意見值得留意。他看好航運和煤炭股,因為前者或受惠於內地政府實施刺激出口措施,而後者與電廠之間的價格問題解決後,煤價可望向上,從而提升盈利表現。

王SIR則看好內地消費零售、基建、內銀和資源類股份,而美國方面,則看好科技、環保和跨國性企業。至於資源方面,他對白金前景最樂觀,因為發展新能源時,對該金屬需求大所致,其次就是白銀和黃金。

不過,他特別提到「息」字頭上一把刀,只要聽到有關政府設立退市機制、抑或有加息跡象和日圓轉淡的話,大家就要將部分投資離場走貨。他更笑著補充,有關策略主要預測至明年8月為止,否則明年大家怎會再捧場!

(9月16日刊於《am730》)

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