Wednesday, September 09, 2009

國家讓你做債主

見到內地政府不斷用香港作為發展海外的試金石,就知道這個曾是顛覆基地(推翻清朝)的小小半島仍有市場價值,特別是讓人民幣逐步走向國際舞台的最佳試煉場。

財政部發行60億元人民幣的國債,對整個國家而言,規模認真小,但對比以往國家開發銀行曾在港發行的50億元人民幣債券,數目已算不小了,而且只作為測試市場反應而已,但相信海外資金也要湧入來分一杯羹,未知資金持續氾濫,會否進一步推低拆息,甚至稍後有傳媒要找大孖沙問問,會否拿些少資金,認購國債,藉此表現其忠誠,畢竟是國家級嘛!

禤中怡不得不佩服內地財金官員,除了國慶前夕做些刺激市場的活動外,也可為即將到來的大批新股尋覓資金,讓大戶先認購新股,願望落空後,仍然可以買國債支持,總之是資金提早進入市場,可知道一隻中冶金(1618)H股已經要集資178億元,還有其他重磅新股陸續登場,確需早作安排,兼且可以讓市況更興旺。

有國家支持,加上內地股市亦憧憬救市措施陸續有來,無論恒指和國指均升逾2%,特別是金融股續受追捧,由於恒指再突破21,000點,難免令人憧憬,整個交易區域已經又升一級,突破20,000點水平,但「911事件」和金融海嘯一周年快來臨,究竟對市況有否影響,值得關注。

對於國債,相信你同我都不太了解,據亞洲開發銀行統計顯示,以本地貨幣計算,中國的政府債券規模於6月底止,達19,535億美元(約15.2萬億港元),當中包括中央政府、地方政府和人民銀行等債券,而在衡量國債水平時,有所謂國債負擔比率(the rate of debt burden),即國債除以國民生產總值,若果比率愈高,表示國家財政愈有問題,相等於個人貸款對比每月收入的倍數愈大,意味入不敷支的情況惡化,而根據一般定義,60%屬於分水嶺,超過該水平的話,國家財政能力就會響警號。

那麼中國的國債負擔比率又如何呢?亞洲開發銀行統計顯示為43.6%,反映債務仍有增長空間,但對比2001年底才19.1%計,可見膨脹速度也非慢。若果以3月底止計,對比日本驚人的156.3%,則顯得甚為輕鬆。至於亞洲區內國家的國債負擔水平亦不少,像新加坡為43.1%、南韓為48.9%,而馬來西亞也有44.7%。

至於國債是否值得認購,除了個人承擔風險外,就是自己的投資組合中,應該讓債券所佔投資比重,以及期望可獲回報水平,並非單看是國家評級就定必無風險,因為國家也會破產的,當然發生可能性十分低。

由於國家債券來港發行啟動後,相信會變成一個持續發行的機制,若果像香港政府官債般,同樣安排在港交所(388)掛牌,二手交易量便不會少,無疑讓該股又多一條財路,所以又要開始尋寶,尋找有否其他國債受惠股了。

(9月9日刊於《am730》)

5 Comments:

At 3:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whilе the gimmick lοoks іnѕtead extгa, consіsting
οf а minor hanԁheld social unit and twο electrode pads, the securities industry, but the aurawave сomes in.
Citizenry whо lіve epilеptiс seizures and ωomen who
are significant should also sеe уour ρhysicіan commеncement if you
aгe woe frοm any pаin sensation that
has not been mеdicallу ԁiagnoѕed.

 
At 8:23 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

air max, burberry outlet, true religion jeans, louboutin, louis vuitton outlet, louboutin, ray ban sunglasses, tiffany and co, coach outlet store online, oakley sunglasses cheap, christian louboutin shoes, longchamp outlet, louis vuitton, true religion jeans, tory burch outlet, kate spade outlet, kate spade handbags, oakley sunglasses, jordan shoes, polo ralph lauren outlet, louis vuitton outlet, louis vuitton handbags, coach outlet, prada outlet, ray ban sunglasses, chanel handbags, michael kors outlet, longchamp handbags, michael kors outlet, oakley sunglasses, nike shoes, air max, coach purses, michael kors outlet, longchamp handbags, louis vuitton outlet stores, nike free, prada handbags, coach factory outlet, gucci outlet, tiffany and co, louboutin outlet, michael kors outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, michael kors outlet, burberry outlet, michael kors outlet

 
At 8:35 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

abercrombie and fitch, hollister, sac burberry, sac hermes, nike free pas cher, michael kors, sac guess, timberland, nike free, lululemon, new balance pas cher, true religion outlet, sac louis vuitton, mulberry, louis vuitton uk, longchamp, nike roshe, vans pas cher, air max, louboutin, vanessa bruno, nike blazer, hollister, air force, ray ban pas cher, true religion outlet, north face, oakley pas cher, hogan outlet, nike trainers, nike tn, air jordan, sac louis vuitton, polo lacoste, louis vuitton, air max pas cher, michael kors pas cher, michael kors, polo ralph lauren, sac longchamp, converse pas cher, ralph lauren, nike roshe run, barbour, nike air max, air max, north face, ray ban sunglasses

 
At 8:35 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

marc jacobs, soccer shoes, abercrombie and fitch, hollister, asics running shoes, canada goose, ugg boots, nfl jerseys, reebok outlet, herve leger, ugg, north face outlet, mont blanc, longchamp, insanity workout, canada goose uk, chi flat iron, babyliss pro, ugg pas cher, ugg australia, canada goose jackets, mcm handbags, canada goose, wedding dresses, new balance shoes, mac cosmetics, soccer jerseys, celine handbags, birkin bag, p90x, ferragamo shoes, valentino shoes, nike huarache, beats by dre, ghd, instyler, jimmy choo outlet, lululemon outlet, bottega veneta, canada goose, rolex watches, canada goose outlet, vans shoes, nike roshe run, moncler, ugg boots, north face jackets, uggs outlet, giuseppe zanotti

 
At 8:46 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

louboutin, moncler outlet, juicy couture outlet, iphone 6 cases, hollister, moncler, karen millen, oakley, baseball bats, wedding dresses, ray ban, gucci, canada goose, ralph lauren, canada goose, swarovski crystal, hollister clothing store, moncler, air max, converse, pandora jewelry, juicy couture outlet, rolex watches, moncler, supra shoes, moncler, pandora charms, ugg, vans, toms shoes, links of london, pandora charms, air max, timberland boots, parajumpers, hollister, thomas sabo, louis vuitton, montre homme, coach outlet store online, lancel, ugg, swarovski, moncler, converse shoes

 

Post a Comment

<< Home