Thursday, August 27, 2009

往生獻商機

新股又再熱鬧,最重要是很久未見有新公司上市的創業板,今年終於開齋,奧思知(8325)以配售1.5億新股方式上市,以每股最高價0.33元計,集資才4,950萬元,認真濕碎,何況該公司一年做780萬元生意,去年股東應佔虧損14.5萬元,真不知怎樣推介。

除該股外,另一隻計劃在創業板上市的中國生命集團亦努力推銷,最重要的是,該股主要在內地和台灣經營殯儀服務,亦採用配售方式上市,集資額最高約1.2億元。該股提供殯儀館及殯儀服務,並在內地江南提供火化服務,其賣點之一竟然是各增值服務定價較少受法律或政府定價政策所影響,毛利率竟可高達63%至95%之多。

再看看中國生命集團的損益表,08年做4,148萬元人民幣生意,純利692萬元人民幣,邊際利潤達16.6%,比藍籌股利豐(494)半年做462.9億元生意,賺13.9億元,邊際利潤僅3%還高,當然,兩者難作直接比較,但邊際利潤率非低,或許與競爭相對較低,議價能力較高所致。儘管中國的死亡率在08年為0.706%,死亡人口約935萬人,數字比全港人口還多,商業機會確多,但需注意,資源有限,網絡怎樣覆蓋全國呢?

若果該股終能掛牌,以純粹單一做殯儀服務計,相信屬第一間,但其實上市公司早有先例,或者從事類似業務,但表現看來並非突出。像另一間創業板公司,前稱嘉利福,現稱太陽國際(8029)其中一瓣生意就是經營殯儀服務,奈何生意未算突出,09年度營業額顯著回落,兼且更蝕本,索性於去年10月以314萬元出售該業務,套現轉身做其他熱門生意。至於中民安園(8085)於金融海嘯前買入一批墓園公司股權,投資殯葬業務,並續整合墓園和殯儀館業務。

主板上市公司也有參與墓園相關業務,如勤達集團(1172)於07年也斥逾3億元,收購了廣東省一項墓園業務87.5%股權,奈何於08年度業績中,便要為該業務作商譽減值虧損1,460萬元,並已就墓園內其餘418畝地皮發展計劃,重新制訂時間表,以應付經濟前景和消費市場的波動。

至於由徐展堂擔任名譽主席的北海集團(701)亦持有廣東四會一個墓園項目11.7%股權,投資成本達1.6億元,可惜在08年度便要減值4,391萬元,並視作可供出售投資,又是慘淡收場,反映做墓園生意並非那麼理想。

投資角度看,證券界朋友話該類股份同做醫療或藥物的上市公司比較,以傳統中國人看來,始終同死有關而「棹忌」,故此同業績前景無關,恐怕也不會太受歡迎。

至於美國Service Corporation International是專做殯儀服務的上市公司,今年上半年賺5,760萬美元(約4.4億港元),跌21%,邊際利潤僅有5.6%,奈何美國經濟差,墓地銷售額倒退,幸好依然有錢賺,反映殯儀服務不一定會減少,但未知會否有墓地斷供情況呢?

(8月26日刊於《am730》)

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