Tuesday, August 18, 2009

中信泰富還有貨賣嗎?

面對台灣暴雨成災,禤中怡先呼籲大家慷慨解囊,救救不遠的同胞,因為天災難避,唯有愛心不滅,就像以往發生的四川大地震和華東水災,大家不也是為遠方的人送上祝福嗎?

言歸正傳,各地股市急瀉之際,中信泰富(267)、中國國航(753)和國泰航空(293)齊掛免戰牌,原來中信泰富以每股12.88元賣掉手上大部分國泰股權,國航增持4.9億股,而太古則增持7,867萬股,合共作價近73.5億元,讓中信泰富賺10億元。更厲害的是,以國泰停牌前股價11.62元計,即每股作價有高達10.8%溢價,代表國泰其實應該更值錢嗎?或許進一步染紅,意味身價有所提升。

猶記得,中信泰富新主席兼行政總裁常振明親自掛帥,在榮智健和范鴻齡離開公司後,常總曾於5月的股東大會後表明,無考慮沽售國泰航空和香港隧道等資產,估不到在不足3個月內,卻出現峰迴路轉的變化,是甚麼原因導致管理層的投資策略有如此180度的改變呢?若果該集團要專注內地業務,那麼手上的大昌行(1828)和中信1616(1883)股權,豈不是也可善價而沽,套現再投資?但該兩隻股份昨隨大市分別回落2.2%和2.9%。

至於大市顯著向下755點至20,137點,跌3.6%,國企股指數跌幅更達4.2%,現貨月期指跌勢更急,全日跌869點至20,068點,成交更增至9.5萬張,似乎是即日鮮的斬倉盤居多,而期指曾低見20,003點,下月期指已穿20,000點,以19,980點收市,且看淡友能否造低獲利。大家又為股市大跌找藉口,其中內地統計話,資金大幅從股市流走,又是憂慮銀行收緊信貸等老問題,但足以讓深滬股市又再表演高空急降的場面,拖累上證指數跌5.79%,見今年以來最大跌幅。

睇《華爾街日報》,據基金追蹤機構EPFR Global統計顯示,本月第二周確實有投資中國股票的基金流出大量資金﹐涉4.45億美元(約34.7億港元),但對比之前一周則仍有小量資金流入。由於投資中國的資金流出,令不包括日本在內的亞洲新興市場股票基金錄得2,700萬美元(約2.1億港元)的資金流出。

不止中國,其實新興市場股票基金的資金流入速度明顯放緩﹐如本月第二周,新興市場股票基金的資金流入總額僅5.71億美元(約44.5億港元)﹐只及之前一周約三分一而已。至於新興市場債券基金雖共流入2.39億美元(約18.6億港元)﹐但今年以來仍錄得資金淨流出,反映資金不一定流入區內債市避險。

不過,見到美國聯儲局與財政部又話延長實施TALF機制最多半年時間,即繼續為消費和商業信貸的有抵押證券(ABS),以及為商業物業抵押證券(CMBS)提供融資,可見資金氾濫是一回事,但醒目錢不一定會流入這類高危市場,而消費和商業信貸會否引發新一輪問題,值得留意,畢竟滙豐控股(005)在當地仍有不少業務,或許再成為淡友推低藉口。

(8月18日刊於《am730》)

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