Wednesday, July 22, 2009

資金大挪移

同地產界朋友久未碰面,自然要趁重逢茶敘一番。朋友中港兩邊走,畢竟香港生意發展有限,內地才是無底洞,做極都有,總之辛苦命難改。

禤中怡第一句就好奇問道,上海閔行區蓮花河畔小區樓房整幢倒塌事件,雖然發生多時,但始終想聽他的反應。朋友話,一看便知有關承建商建樓有問題,更認為物業並非豆腐渣工程,因為幢大廈倒塌時,整幢物業仍然完好,完全沒有「散晒」情況,反映未有偷工減料,或受本身質素差問題所影響。

那為何倒下呢?朋友話物業用空心樁,本身不存在安全問題,香港以往亦准用空心樁建樓,相信不少樓齡較大而層數不多的單幢樓亦採用該技術,後來大廈愈建愈高才不用此方法而已,最重要是該技術本身沒有問題,否則那些單幢樓怎可屹立至今?但條件是樓盤需處於一個穩定的地基之上,是次該幢臨河而建的物業地基,似乎受地基泥土流失而無法穩固,自然要倒塌。

朋友認為事件不會影響內地置業意欲,但近期推出的國策對樓市打擊或更大,就是限制內地市民購買第二個物業的首期要求,進一步推高至樓價的四成,即200萬元人民幣的物業,需先拿80萬元人民幣的真金白銀付款。

朋友解釋,一般購置自住物業的,多只會考慮置業利息和承擔按揭供款等問題,當然愈早清還貸款愈好。至於買第二個單位時,他認為與投資性質有關,購買這類物業人士多希望買來收租或等物業升值,故他們關注的,自然與回報率拉上關係,而過去如置業首期只需樓價兩成,即200萬元人民幣的物業,只需拿40萬元人民幣便可,倘若樓價升兩成,即多賺40萬元人民幣,對比所拿出來的真金白銀共40萬元人民幣比較,回報率就是1倍!但如首期增至樓價的四成,即80萬元人民幣,同一情況下,回報率僅50%,而按此公式計,收租回報率或更低,形成再買第二個單位作投資的誘因便會下降,從而略為冷卻樓市。禤中怡聽完也覺有理,且看上半年新增貸款中,房地產相關貸款逾8,000億元人民幣,難怪更有取消按揭息七折的傳聞,實行要剎一剎車,避免樓市過熱。

不過,轉念一想,卻可能是政策市的另一完美布局,故事是這樣的:見到內地股市的新股集資活動停頓多時,總不能斬腳趾避沙蟲,不讓新股上市以維護現時股市的走勢,故在四川成渝(107)發A股,讓中國海外(688)母公司中國建築大舉集資或逾500億元人民幣等一眾新股登場前,先要轉變投資的資金流向,讓本來投資樓市的資金,改為向新股靠攏,成功避免讓股市資金被抽走,推低大市,反過來影響新股招股反應。

至於新股的招股反應熱烈,然後上市股價持續有升勢,試問大家怎會錯過這個發財機會呢?此外,創業板市場又於下周登場,又多一個疏通資金的渠道,政府當然希望資金大挪移,做旺新場。

(7月23日刊於《am730》)

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