Wednesday, July 08, 2009

去吧,金磚四國!

內地股市再呈現熱鬧氣氛,成交額增加,深滬兩市周一做超過3,000億元人民幣的交投,認真不得了。至於主要指數亦持續走高,上海證券綜合指數昨日雖回落至3,089點,但以去年底該指數才1,821點計,即今年以來已累升多達69.6%,幅度相當顯著。

其實,作為金磚四國之一,中國股票基金表現相當不俗,據基金分析機構Morningstar統計顯示,今年以來,該類基金已升逾43.3%,雖然尚未收復全部失地,如以一年看,亦只是僅跌3.65%而已,拉長點看,以投資3年為例,回報仍有14.95%,相信已有交代。

至於香港股票基金也不失禮,今年以來回報34.2%,即使以1年計,也不過回落11.06%而已,加上今年以來台灣大型股票基金增長更達40.57%,令大中華股票基金也有36.89%進帳,回氣力度與亞太區股票(不包括日本)基金的32.87%回報不遑多讓。

談到大中華地區,似乎人人看好,特別是兩岸三地互動增加,禤中怡亦看到湧現有趣的新名詞。繼早前上海被欽點做國際金融中心,令香港受威脅,隨後外界卻認為兩地實屬夥伴關係,竟衍生「Shangkong」,即Shanghai和Hong Kong的合併寫法後,南韓傳媒亦因內地和台灣加強經貿合作,提到「Chaiwan」一詞。想一想,「ChaiWan」的串法與香港柴灣的英文名稱相同,真的是巧合得來又可產生中港台聚合在一起的味道,究竟想出這個英文名的,是否到過柴灣呢?

言歸正傳,其實中國用內需抵抗外需萎縮這招,不但有利本土企業多生意,其他國家自然也希望可以分一杯羹而湧入內地,相信今年會成為中國投資年,好像曾榮膺打工皇帝的謝清海,旗下檔惠理集團(806)亦準備同富時指數集團設立一個新指數,主題當然以中國市場為主。富時指數集團早已透過新華富時推出多隻針對中港股市的指數,為國際投資者服務的也有7隻之多,且看他們又想出甚麼新噱頭。

不過,若以今年以來表現計,中國股票基金在金磚四國排名中,敬陪末席,而冠軍卻是俄羅斯股票基金,升幅便高達61.7%,但因俄羅斯股市重挫太厲害,以1年表現看,有關基金依然倒退57.4%,認真驚心動魄,反映投資這類新興市場的上落速度也頗急速。

至於亞軍和季軍分別是巴西股票基金(增長57%)及印度股票基金(升50.4%)。因這四國均有顯著反彈,故金磚四國股票基金於今年以來便增長46%,以1年計仍有負回報31.94%,而早前摩根大通統計顯示,資金續流入金磚四國的基金,意味大家用行動支持看好前景。

其他新興市場也不容忽視,像拉丁美洲股票基金於今年至今升了41.23%,而新興歐洲股票基金則錄30.03%的回報。當然,高風險高回報,投資前要了解清楚,並且要分散風險,絕不要將資金集中一注,否則無力反擊。

(7月8日刊於《am730》)

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