Thursday, June 18, 2009

大戶睇危機未除

港股又坐小型過山車,開低後繼續在18,000點窄幅爭持,但內地股市似乎消化了新股快將重新啟動的消息,上海綜合指數和深圳成分指數分別急升1.2%和2.2%,令恒指於午後復市,竟裂口從17,900點附近,即時抽上18,100點,然後再高見18,255點後才回軟,全靠內銀股加滙豐控股(005)支撐,總之托住指數不大跌就是。

究竟大市方向如何,或許專業投資者及大戶會有啟示,且看在摩納哥一連三日舉行的環球另類投資管理(GAIM)會議,供對沖基金、大型投資者參加,首日訪問200名投資者和資產管理經理,發現65.2%受訪者認為危機仍持續,料情況惡化的則佔17.4%,相信危機已經過去的佔17.4%,反映早前經濟學者、財金高官等話最壞情況已過的言論,並未令投資者信服。

至於最令人憂慮的地區並非美國,因只佔35.5%,而是近六成擔心歐洲前景,相反包含中國的新興市場不太受影響,可見投資者的資產調配,多少會投向新興市場。那麼在未來12至18個月應採取甚麼策略才獲最佳回報呢?揸長倉,即看好的只佔2.2%,有趣的是,明明大部分受訪者料危機未解除,選擇做短倉,即看淡的亦僅佔3.3%而已。他們反而認為因危機而產生的投資機會將有好回報,總之趁亂出擊。

其實,該會議一向是對沖基金與機構性投資者接觸的場合,但今年對沖基金經營者表現分外落力,例如主動提供推廣資料的積極性,比以往強烈,畢竟生意要緊。對沖基金最想獲得機構投資者如家族基金、退休基金甚至富裕人士撥些少供投資,藉此收取報酬,奈何金融海嘯捲走大批資產,對沖基金自然要想法維持基金規模,否則難達致收支平衡。

有負責家族信託的基金經理話,以前很少對沖基金會接觸他,但今年就已經收了30個電話或電郵,希望獲得見面機會,另一名管理家族資產的基金經理更為了避開難纏的傢伙,竟然想出派特別的名片,就是名片沒有電話號碼和電郵地址,認真神奇!

至於對沖基金能捱到會議舉行已不錯,因據Hedge Fund Research(HFR)統計顯示,今年首季倒閉的對沖基金達376家之多,雖然對比08年第四季創紀錄的778家比較,已大幅減少五成,但季度已減少4.05%,是有史以來第二高水平,只比上個季度的7.77%為低而已。若從08年中至今,更已消失了近1,200家之多,只剩9,050家。唯一令人安慰的是,今年首季新成立基金數量也有150家,是08年第二季度以來最高的一個季度。

另一個受影響的趨勢,就是對沖基金收取的費用持續低迷,首季平均管理費為1.57%,至於因表現佳而收取的獎勵費用方面,平均為19.22%,續有下降趨勢,可見今日對沖基金生意也不易做,最重要的是,大市經過一輪反彈,早前被綁住的投資者會否趁勢贖回,讓對沖基金又捱一棒呢?

(6月18日刊於《am730》)

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