Tuesday, June 09, 2009

細價股瘋狂搶錢

大市被滙豐控股(005)受負面消息所推低,加上市場話美國要加息,相信又是炮製壞消息的好時機,畢竟經濟未見完全好轉,竟然已經要憂慮息口向上,大戶真是無所不用其極,但望到隻中國移動(941)股價反升,似乎大戶不想大市太快掉頭,等大家落鑊後才會開工,震倉再推才屬上算,故恒指只跌426點至18,253點,但需注意,成交額已降至742億元,可能托住一隻重磅股,開始走貨了。

細價股就趁大家話炒股不炒市之際,齊齊拼命搶錢,單是昨日便足足有多達5隻股份同時向市場抽水,實行大有大抽,小有小拿,如中國水業(1129)批3.65億股新股,每股0.33元,配股價折讓8.33%,集資1.2億元,規模小的有泓鋒國際(2309),該股索性放棄發行可換股票據,轉為以每股0.4元發行1.5億股新股,也要拿6,000萬元。有趣的是,兩隻股份都是由金利豐證券負責做配售代理。

華聯國際(969)亦不甘示弱,發行1億股新股,每股0.6元,批予3名投資者,獲得6,000萬元資金,但配股價較之前收市價0.7元折讓高達14.2%。但談到折讓大,非百營環球(761)和中科環保(351)莫屬,前者發行最多1.7億股新股,每股配售價0.205元,較配股前收市價0.255元足足折讓達19.6%,並只拿了3,400萬元。中科環保更厲害,以每股0.122元配售12億股新股,每股作價較之前收市價折讓高達19.7%,差不多是八折售股,籌約1.46億元。5隻細價股一口氣就抽了4.2億元,對大市的影響確是濕濕碎,但抽水頻頻,是否反映大市已經走到水尾呢?

且看前滙豐亞太區主席艾爾敦(David Gordon Eldon)在其個人網誌內撰文指出,投資市場正陷入瘋狂狀態,股市無視疲弱的經濟數據而持續上升,令他百思不得其解,他甚至向朋友及基金經理求教,發現不少人都已經沽售大部分股票,即使是零息時代,他們亦轉為持有現金最為有利,而這個消息令他稍感安心。

他坦言對近日環球巿場們升勢,睇到目瞪口呆。雖然不少報章頭條宣稱最壞時刻已過去,但報章內仍充斥企業裁員、結業,以及航空及汽車製造業面對困境的報道,失業問題無疑會令更多人無力償還按揭、汽車及信用卡債務。他認為,現時好壞消息同時存在、經濟與股市背馳的情況,就如寫錯支票般,因銀碼與金額寫法不一致而被彈票一樣,可能巿場有時會不理邏輯,只求短炒獲利。

若果看看對沖基金研究(HFR)的報告顯示,5月份表現屬自2000年2月,即近10年以來最佳,HFRI基金加權綜合指數上升5.2%,而今年以來更已經升逾9%,認真恐怖,究竟是股市真的先走在經濟前面,抑或純粹是錢太多呢?但需注意的是,所謂「錢」,可能只是政府猛印銀紙所致,並非企業盈利滾存,以及大家的口袋裡重了一點,實體經濟始終未有好轉的。

(6月9日刊於《am730》)

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