Wednesday, June 03, 2009

鎖倉有何用

期指周一低水收市,淡友昨日以為有得食,豈知開市不久又抽高近200點,如果捱不住離場,就見不到午市恒指從逾18,800點直滑落插至18,389點的場面,恐怕炒即日鮮好過持過夜盤。

同資深證券界朋友談起,他說又要變回上落市了,但不代表無得炒,因為藍籌抖氣,輪到消息股接力,例如資源股又見升,江西銅業(358)抽上14.9元,增6.8%,收市仍增2.1%至14.24元,而鞍鋼(347)亦破13元,高見13.58元,6.9%,最終仍能逆市升1.5%至12.9元收市。興業銅業(505)更厲害,單日急漲35.8%至1.29元,兼且有1億元成交配合。

衍生工具市場同樣熱鬧,牛熊證昨日成交額逾85億元,與過去1周平均每日逾60億元比較顯著增多,而流入恒指熊證的更逾1億元。其實,近日港股急速攀升,恐怕熊證被打靶得七七八八,繼續在市場買賣的牛熊證已買少見少,起碼要等多幾個交易日才有新供應。

市場日日有得炒,最重要是避免過分沉迷,以及小心經紀的處理手法,且看證監會昨日判敦沛期貨前負責人葉民勳禁止重投業界,為期9個月時間,但最重要是敦沛期貨就被譴責兼罰款400萬元,更講明,如在兩年內出現嚴重的鎖倉交易等,就會被「釘牌」最少12個月,都算是頗為厲害的警告。

事緣敦沛期貨持牌代表的失當行為也不少,單在06年便有5單之多,兼且情況相類似,其中最大問題就是建議客戶進行「鎖倉」交易,但未能合理解釋鎖倉交易,如何令客戶受惠,而敦沛期貨自08年2月起,更全面禁止客戶進行「鎖倉」交易。

簡單而言,鎖倉交易就是同時持有相同數量的好倉及淡倉,做法是同時持有方向相反的倉位,例如做一張大期(恒指期貨合約)的淡倉合約時,碰上股市向上,便買一張大期的好倉合約,若果大市續升,好倉合約當然有賺,但淡倉合約則續虧損。表面看,這種造法可以鎖定交易損失,而待市況好轉時才解倉,即將好淡倉齊齊平倉,或許可以收復失地。

不過,若果真的看錯市,其實選擇平倉離場,即時計算虧損更好,因為選擇鎖倉的話,交易的虧損看似是帳面數字,但虧損已經成為定局,日後再作的買賣,希望藉此彌補交易損失的投資活動,實際上與鎖倉無關。

更加不能忽視的,就是鎖倉是需要成本的,例如要用槓桿投資,可能會需要孖展,即要貸款以應付同時就買入及賣出兩方面持倉所需資金,變相要支付貸款產生的利息開支,而平倉的話,只需付單邊孖展的成本而已。

此外,一旦鎖倉,日後無可避免也需要解倉,屆時需要就買入和賣出的差價支付額外的交易成本,如需付兩次經紀佣金,為何仍有客戶依然願意「落疊」?可能一時未掌握內情有關,故此投資不用害怕,最緊要睇清楚。

(6月3日刊於《am730》)

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