Wednesday, May 20, 2009

雙升不報喜

剛剛話投資隨時要改國籍,怎知愈來愈恐怖,另一位朋友同禤中怡呻,話走入銀行辦理普通的投資產品——存款證,職員處理好文件及進行風險評估後,竟然要留下來,聽一段有關風險的錄音,本來以為幾句了事,亦樂於完成這個手續,後來才發現,這段錄音的長度相當驚人,足足是10張A4紙的文件,究竟要聽多久就不得而知,但可見雷曼兄弟迷你債券事件,對銀行影響之深遠。

金管局任總終於落台,相信亦因為要為雷曼迷債事件孭鑊,多少有催化作用,況且今日內地金融強大後盾,已經足以支持本港金融體系,這位明星級的金融王者也變得可有可無,日後繼任人選的施政方針,可能更貼近內地趨向,重要性難作同日而語。禤中怡祝任總退休後生活愉快,但為何接替人選不能同日公布,莫非嫌新聞太多,故再擇個好日才顯露真身?

大市就懶理金融管理局頭頭換人,畢竟有關傳聞已消化得九九十十,實行緊跟美股炒高而造好,恒指衝破17,544點,甚至企在250天牛熊分界線之上收市,而淡友這兩天肯定無啖好食,31隻熊證昨日慘遭打靶,損傷慘重。

最重要是全球股市均陷瘋狂,皆因市場資金認真多到不得了。美股周一續炒高,皆因美國銀行(Bank of Amercia)獲高盛列入買入名單,更有分析料第二季會有盈利,無他,沽完建設銀行(939)批大貨,肯定獲利甚豐,有助幫補填美林那個氹,刺激股價急漲近一成,其他金融股也造好,如富國銀行(Wells Fargo)升逾8%,一點也不失禮。隨後更有3大金融巨頭高盛、大摩和摩根大通準備償清政府注入共450億美元(約3,510億港元)的資金,市場解讀為金融業已趨穩定,當然是好消息。

禤中怡更關注「雙升」,一是美國財政部長蓋特納雖然大唱信貸市場已解凍,但又話失業率仍會上升,這種升勢代表實體經濟將受嚴重影響,金融股真的能抵擋得住?做信用卡生意的美國運通立刻推重組第二波打對台,既要裁員4,000人,又要減營運支出,因壞帳率由3月的8.8%升至4月的10.1%。

美國聯儲局於4月訪問53間本地銀行及23間外資銀行的調查發現,約65%已表示降低新舊客戶的信用卡信貸限額,比1月的45%為多,而70%更認為本身貸款組合質素可能會惡化,更有90%當地銀行話信用卡等貸款質素或惡化。若果失業人數增,試問客戶怎還款呢?

另一個令人憂慮的上升趨勢,就是豬流感,連世衛食雞珍姐都話估不到有多嚴重,這才最恐怖,有專家更預測美國感染人數或升至10萬人,難得是市場無懼對實體經濟的影響,且看日本豬流感爆發對其第二季生產總值有何影響便知。

題外話,上周談到《核數師意見你要睇》,網友keith通知,在遠東控股(036)份年報內,可以找到核數師強調事項,詳見第26頁,禤中怡特此表示感謝。

(5月20日刊於《am730》)

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