Monday, May 04, 2009

祖國洪水湧台灣

兩岸三通一向是對香港經濟發展的重大威脅,但似乎已成事實,香港人實在要找其他出路,不能依賴過去兩岸政治緊張,藉中轉地優勢而從中撈油水。

溫總之前讓內地遊客乘郵輪來港,然後可前往台灣,初聽以為又有新財路,5年來蝕了4年錢的麗星郵輪(678),股價竟然可以大升,真的以為前途無限,豈知轉眼間,兩岸達成協議,將飛機航班大增2.5倍,變相令兩地往來更容易,還有多少人願意花數天時間乘船,就為了往台灣呢?何況我們偉大的新郵輪碼頭仍是淨土一塊,落成時可能又變成豪宅項目而已,最多泊幾艘賭船吧!

除了人流,資金流的轉向也不容忽視,早前台灣準備開放金融業,讓內地資金入股當地銀行,還未有落實,另一行業卻率先獲內地資金垂青,就是巨無霸中國移動(941)入股台灣遠傳電信12%股權,作價不過41億元,濕濕碎也,但今次「走出去」的實質和象徵意義巨大,畢竟仍走在大中華地區。

聽電訊界人士講,中國移動當年買萬眾電話,同樣是細碼交易,但對萬眾電話就好處多多,首先有資源豐厚的母公司支持,採購電訊設備時,可以同母公司一齊買,令成本足足大減五成,套用在遠傳電信,相信同樣適用,藉此減省資本支出,而且遠傳是次發新股,也可獲得一筆可觀資金供調動。

雖然遠傳的貢獻佔中國移動每年盈利逾千億元人民幣的比重十分低,但最重要是中國移動可以藉此取得對方的技術和經驗,有助迎接3G大戰,因除了網絡質素外,內容也相當重要。此外,萬眾電話品牌已被中國移動所取代,不難他朝在台灣也可見到該品牌的招牌,儘管法例話外資不准持有控制性股權,如內地企業不視為外資的話,又是否另作別論。

台灣市場明顯比香港大,況且回歸近12年後,中資在港已佔據了顯著位置,下一步定必搶攻台灣,可以讓內地商人找到另一個發展空間,相信這類交易陸續有來,如果內地航空公司入股台灣的航空公司又是否可行呢?若果憧憬有入股概念,是否代表台灣股市有得炒呢?

台灣股市有幾瘋狂?主要在內地發展的中國旺旺(151),成功以存託憑證方式,登陸台灣股市,立刻受到熱烈追捧,股價連續兩日漲停板,見17.2元新台幣,即約3.96港元,鑊氣甚重,因為只成交了3,000多張存託憑證,但還有多達40萬張等成交,簡單而言就是超買得厲害,但該股只將2.1億股普通股,轉以存託憑證掛牌,貨少而買盤多,怎不挾爆。

至於中國旺旺於本港股價亦漲2.1%至3.82元,會否追落後就不得而知,但相信其他台資背景企業也會蠢蠢欲動,希望返回台灣掛牌,那麼在港掛牌的台資股又會否藉此發威,值得留意,因為資金湧入非同小可,兼且今次是祖國放水入台灣,不會一瞬即逝,況且打經濟牌,好過用導彈統一吧!

(4月30日刊於《am730》)

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