Tuesday, April 14, 2009

溫總為股市撥火

復活節假期未過,已見泰國一片槍聲連連,死傷肯定不少,相信耶穌被釘十字架,幫世人贖罪後,見到這種場面又再出現,也會難過不已。禤中怡更祝願那些「勇敢」登陸泰國的香港人能夠平安,兼且加倍小心,免受無妄之災。

見到泰國政治飽受摧殘,根本無暇兼顧經濟,試問怎可從金融海嘯中好轉過來呢?若果當地的管治問題依然無法解決的話,恐怕會令更多人陷入困境,之前當地業界料黃衫軍加紅衫軍,已令泰國的經濟損失高達2,900億泰銖(約630億港元),但恐怕這個估計數字,還未有計及旅客未來放棄前往泰國旅遊所產生的收入。

可知道亞洲區航空市場相當發達,反映旅客流動的能力增加,各國均爭相吸納旅客,令近年旅遊業佔國家或地區的收入比重實在不輕,單是這個估計損失數字,便已經佔2008年泰國國內生產總值GDP的2%!禤中怡的朋友亦話,見到電視畫面後,也決定打消今年往泰國的念頭,可見日後要挽回信心之路實在難行。

不過,地緣政治難阻內地發功的威力,皆因在假期內,祖國不斷發放好消息,實行煽風點火,如3月新增貸款高達1.89萬億元人民幣,比2月多77%,而首季新增貸款額更高達4.58萬億元人民幣,已接近全年目標5萬億元人民幣的91.6%,反映銀行鬆綁的速度加快。雖然當中具備「水份」應不少,但已形成利好作用,且看深滬股市先升逾2%便知。

內地出手又出口,連總理溫家寶早前都預先話,今年第一季經濟數據會比預料中好,實行先派甜頭,且看稍後公布的具體數字會有多突出。昨日亦再炒有新一輪刺激經濟措施快推出,儘管這個傳聞屢見不鮮,差不多隔一段時間就曝光,奈何大家照捧場。

此外,內地也開始炒部分資源行業有加價機會,如電煤合約價格有望因庫存下降而漲價,觸發中國神華(1088)和兗州煤業(1171)的A股股價漲停板,難免對今日復牌的本港股市帶來憧憬。

國家統計局昨日又接力,話今年首季全國商品房銷售面積1.1億平方米,比去年同期增長8.2%,當中住宅銷售面積增長8.7%,而商品房銷售額亦增長23.1%至5,059億元人民幣。不過,3月住宅樓價降1.9%,減幅擴大0.1個百分點。

另一個重點是,首季房地產商的資金來源共1萬億元人民幣中,內地貸款佔2,545億元人民幣,增長8%,而來自個人按揭貸款金額亦有984億元人民幣,增長更達13.2%,反映銀行向樓市注入的資金亦見增加,可能又再觸發新一輪的內房股熱,因為銀行肯借,置業人士有彈藥可入市也。

題外話,上周《中信泰富手尾多多》,提到中信泰富(267)董事總經理范鴻齡的行政會議成員能否得保後,多謝網友Jacky Wong告知,范鴻齡已於1月離任行政會議成員,故特此更正。

(4月14日刊於《am730》)

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