Tuesday, March 31, 2009

一蟹不如一蟹

上周大市仍看好資源股,因為美國開動印鈔機,實行寬鬆量化政策,大家立時對美元失去信心,油價同金價立即升空,證券界自然話資源股成為受惠的股份類別,但昨日資源股卻見洗倉潮。

無他,中國鋁業(2600)份08年度業績確實難睇,全年只賺922萬元人民幣,比三四線股份還差,若果不是所得稅由28.6億元人民幣支出,轉為3,355萬元人民幣收益,相信份成績表已見紅雞蛋了。需注意的是,該股去年首三季還賺25.8億元人民幣,代表去年第四季已蝕去首三季大部分純利,認真恐怖。

話雖該集團早已發盈警,話明08年盈利跌逾50%,但作為藍籌股,確實令人慨歎「一蟹不如一蟹」。可知道該集團於去年6月10日才登入藍籌股的殿堂,殊不容易,可惜加入還不到1年,業績已經「走晒樣」,之前又有隻炒燶外匯的中信泰富(267),叫投資者日後對藍籌股的印象定必大打折扣。

最無奈的還有中國鋁業的內地A股股東,皆因該股於去年藉併購換股方式,成功在內地上市,可惜股價在去年1月初還有38多元人民幣,昨日只剩10.9元人民幣,蒸發了71%,真是中港一家親。

至於中國鋁業昨日在本港的股價當然慘烈,足足不見了11.9%,以4.56元收市,成交股數更比上周五急增63%至1.57億股。儘管大手成交只有307宗,但涉及股數目卻逾7,600萬股,佔近半比重,總值一球一球錢的交投多,相信洗倉還未完,而指數基金今趟無仇報!

大家要知道,資源價格向上,按道理可以令資源股受惠,但企業本身是營運個體,並非純粹像原料般價格上落,業務表現還有管理、資金運用和存貨等,若果經營不善,業績也會遭殃。

另一間嚇親人的藍籌股,當然是思捷(330),皆因德國報章話,主席兼行政總裁高漢思計劃辭去行政總裁一職,另覓高手接任。由於涉及高層變動,加上早前董事兼品牌總裁戈達離職,難免影響投資者信心,如果群龍無首,欠缺領導的企業,你還願意投資嗎?

未知是否人事調動傳聞不值一哂,思捷股份無需停牌,亦未見有澄清通告,投資者豈不趁機逃亡,股價開市短短3分鐘就跌穿40元,之後持續走低,直至下午3時半左右才見大戶用40元分別掃9.4萬股6.8萬股,涉逾378萬元和272萬元的大手交易,開始有較像樣支持,有大戶更用近460萬元入市,以每股39.9元買11.5萬股。

經過多番爭持,思捷突然在下午3時50分披露,話仍無收到高漢思辭職通知,即見大戶以每股39.9元掃17.7萬股,涉逾700萬元,但全日依然要再跌6%,至39.75元收市。最厲害的是,成交股數已增至逾2,800萬股,較過去數周,每日才數百萬股有顯著增加。

有趣的是,收市後思捷同投資者開會解畫,高漢思原來又辭去行政總裁一職,為何無通告交代呢?莫非藍籌股真的獲厚待?

(3月31日刊於《am730》)

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