Thursday, March 26, 2009

港股表演U型上落

望一望月曆,3月轉眼將過,期指又開始轉倉,淡友辛苦幾日,終於可以略為嘗到點甜頭,見到恒指昨日開低,然後彈上13,900點乏力,午後更一直走低,加上隻大笨象也要喘喘氣,回落4.6%至43.65元,難怪要跌288點收市,報13,622點,至於現貨月期指反而高水58點,現貨和4月期指成交亦已超過10萬張。

今年首季,股市呈「U」型上落,與去年底收市14,387點比較,恒指曾低見11,344點,足足不見了3,043點,認真嚇人,但近日在滙豐控股(005)和一眾中資金融股發力下,在現水平已收復大部分失地,只是相差765點而已。亞洲區股市方面,日經平均指數亦距離去年底相差不過389點,即首季累積跌幅僅4.2%而已。台灣加權指數更厲害,累積升幅達16.4%,相信努力粉飾櫥窗的基金經理,已有交代。

美國道瓊斯工業平均指數周二見7,660點,與去年底的8,776點比較,仍有約12.7%的差距,但美國政府如此落重藥救市,刺激經濟措施一浪接一浪,令股市也要呈現小陽春,特別是樓市經過回落多時,新屋銷售又話上升4.7%,而這邊廂又話耐用品訂單向上,增長3.4%,總之營造一片歌舞昇平現象,月底前重越8,000點,並非奇事。

不過,踏入第二季,大家就要見真章了。銀行股要派首季成績表,究竟花旗集團(Citigroup)話頭兩個月有盈利,但3月需否為資產續撥備呢?至於隻滙控供股股份於4月初登場,對港股所構成的沽售壓力又有多大?因為供股價才28元,如供股後見有錢賺,會否先減磅,抑或真的是長相厮守?

銀行股問題一籮籮,早前已話要望住個「C」,即資本也,估不到話口未完,中銀香港(2388)份成績表不合格,為東亞銀行(023)和美國次按相關投資作巨額撥備,拖累盈利大跌,反映管理層的投資眼光認真麻麻,最慘小股東要捱無股息收。昨日又到大新金融(440)和大新銀行(2356)也跟隨大隊,幫自己所持美國華盛頓互惠銀行的債券和其他衍生產品做撇帳,也趁機不派末期股息,股東又要等多1年。

近日被炒高的內銀股業績相對較對辦,畢竟內地受金融衝擊影響有限,且看中國銀行(3988)仍然有能力增加派息30%至每股0.13元人民幣,不計匯價,以昨日收市價2.42元計,股息回報率有5.37%,在今日這種環境來說,已算不俗吧!巨無霸中國工商銀行(1398)去年也賺逾千億元人民幣,派0.165元人民幣,增長24%,與昨日收市價3.58元計,股息回報率4.6%,也滿足股東期望吧!

回望1999年,全球20大市值的金融機構中,美國足足佔了11個席位,在03年,美國公司更霸了13個之多,但今日只剩3間而已,首3位已由工商銀行、建設銀行(939)和中國銀行瓜分,而交通銀行(3328)和招商銀行(3968)則佔第10和第12位,相信這種趨勢,短期內也難被打破。

(3月26日刊於《am730》)

5 Comments:

At 3:16 PM, Blogger 若缺齋老人 said...

之所以成U,也是早前被塞得太低了吧?

 
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