Thursday, March 12, 2009

工廠恐爆拉閘第二波

前日同廠商朋友談完股經,他終於講正題,憂慮現時經營環境同股市一樣惡劣,其實工業界亦隱約聞到燶味,故此大家要小心,內地廠家恐怕會爆裁員和倒閉第二波。

聽到朋友兩句不到就唉聲嘆氣,就知道生意難做得有多恐怖。其實,禤中怡早已聽到噩耗,話說貨櫃碼頭近來靜到不得了,傳說淡靜的情況,比當年的沙士爆發時期更甚!無他,海外市場萎縮,需求下降,出口運輸業怎會有好日子過,聽聞珠海有間貨櫃箱製造廠,更已經早在去年底停工,以免積壓過多存貨。

內地昨日話2月出口急跌近26%,雖然市場已預期會倒退,但估計幅度約17%,相信數字已明確反映出口情況有多惡劣,加上入口亦減少24%,終於明白以出口為主的製造行業,正經歷一個多麼寒冷的嚴冬。

廠商朋友大吐苦水,話農曆新年一過,工人陸續回來,可惜訂單卻未見增加,生意只有以往同期的三成左右,若果可以有四成生意,就已經算是理想了,這種慘淡情況長此下去,恐怕繼去年下半年爆發廠家倒閉潮後,可能最快於月中又出現大型裁員風潮,大量工人將飯碗不保。

朋友話,其實廠家已經找尋方法,實行自救,以他的工廠為例,早已於去年開始瘦身,工人數目由6,000人,減至現時1,500人,足足削減了75%之多,同時與員工達成協議,在無工開的日子,就會讓他們放無薪假期。禤中怡以為像香港的企業般,每月放兩至三日無薪假,朋友亦話,假期日數差不多,但是以每個星期計!

按照這種趨勢,朋友估計可能要捱至5月才有較像樣的訂單,奈何內地政府顯然沒有政策支援,可能要待廠商真的倒閉後,才肯出手安撫那些失業大軍。朋友嘆道,早知面對死捱下去的局面,反之羨慕去年如合俊(2700)等大廠快快結業,可能今日不用吊鹽水,但情況若持續,可能真的連自己也捱不下去,加入結業大軍。

不過,入口商的存貨理應也在這幾個月消化得七七八八,為何仍是一潭死水?朋友話,外需確實疲弱外,最大問題就是產量過剩的問題仍未解決,無論電器、高價成衣等都仍有不少存貨,所以怎樣走出困局呢?

若果有留意,近期多隻實力工業股如德昌電機(179)和精電國際(710)發盈利警告,多少與他們從事與汽車業相關產品製造業務有關,奈何全球汽車業萎縮而大受打擊,而信利國際(732)昨日亦發盈利警告,收益料大跌,主因不外乎去年第四季收益急劇減少、更要為製成品降價而為存貨減值。

這些工業股業務算實在,但也敵不過市場急速冷卻的環境,而今次能否擺脫困局,似乎並非競爭力問題,反而要看企業的現金燃燒速度,因為即使有多厲害的技術和產品也無用,如果需求不能提升,便根本無法賣出去。

(3月12日刊於《am730》)

8 Comments:

At 11:06 PM, Blogger 湯記 said...

「傳說淡靜的情況,比當年的沙士爆發時期更甚」……
我猜是遠比當時的情況壞,看《金融時報》每天的報道便知道外圍境有多壞,出口短期會有咩環境,自然想像得到.

 
At 11:50 PM, Blogger 巴林 said...

一來外圍環境唔好,二來內部生產過剩,三來成本相對高昂但產業未升級 !

 
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