Thursday, February 26, 2009

尋找私有化寶藏

財爺份財政預算案認真碎濕濕,這邊做點保就業措施,那邊推出些少利民紓困計劃,但卻是濕濕碎,中產拿著那些退稅都不知有何實質好處,而低下階層的生活質素亦未見提升。資助大學畢業生就更令人莫名其妙,已經有這麼高的學歷,若果肯「紆尊降貴」,從低做起,定必能捱過來,但為了令失業率避免進一步惡化,必須做點粉飾櫥窗的功夫。大市早段本來高開,曾見13,148點,但財爺愈講愈不對路,恒指連13,000點也守不住,莫非份財政預算淡如水,掉頭造淡?幸好日本股市向上,恒指勉強企在13,005點收市,升206點。

大市亦非隻隻股份升,如電訊盈科(008)復牌後,股價反跌2.5%至3.89元,無他,揸貨的擔心私有化失敗,股價打回原形就不得了,只好沽貨離場望清楚好過。電盈私有化建議,相信是歷來最多波折的一次。按去年10月底公布擬私有化,直至撤銷上市地位,變回一間私人公司為止,最樂觀預期於4月中完成,代表整個交易足足擾攘近半年時間,證明小小超每次出擊(從收購德信佳、香港電訊、出售流動電話業務和出售股權等),都成為矚目焦點,兼令人疲於奔命。

其實,上市公司私有化也不是如此複雜的,相反市況欠佳,近期私有化建議卻有增加趨勢,計一計,落實和計劃私有化的公司也有6間之多,較遠的有去年底由邵爵士提出全購邵氏(080),若果一切順利,最快只需3個月便完成交易。

本月至今更已經有4間之多,上周鱷魚恤(122)主席兼行政總裁林建名提出以每股0.4元將公司收歸己有,出價比當時停牌價0.208元計算,溢價高達92.3%之多,希望一舉奪得其他股東的芳心。為甚麼他願意出手如此闊綽,原來該集團於08年7月底每股資產淨值約0.983元,代表出價仍有近60%折讓,而且公司淨現金料有1億元,即使私有化代價料約1.2億元,日後從鱷魚恤提取該筆現金,實際所需資金有限。還有隻細細粒的森泰(451),大股東提出的私有化總代價不足5,000萬元,但每股出價1.23元,與去年9月每股資產淨值約7.518元比較,足足折讓達83%!

NTEEP(2633)母公司更厲害,靜候3年後,第二度提出私有化建議,每股出價1.5元,比資產淨值更高出3.4倍!私有化決心可見一斑,難怪連持有該股的股壇長毛也呼籲接納私有化建議。

這些上市公司獲垂青,股價多在消息公布翌日抽上,畢竟作價同股價有一定差距,人人想執少少,即使不揸到撤銷上市之日,也可搭一程順風車,在大市向下趨勢中幫補幫補嘛!要在低位入市著實不易,大家開始尋寶,找下一個具私有化可能的目標,但這種投資策略的確要做好多功夫,兼要有耐性,如要股價夠低殘,與資產淨值折讓大,加上手頭現金多就更理想。還有一點較難分析的,就是看母公司財力如何。當然,有大銀行支持,又可掏空上市公司的就另計。

(2月26日刊於《am730》)

12 Comments:

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有冇尋找心得或者疑似公司可分享?
最近我會留意和記港陸,但仿效和電派高息機會高過私有化。

 
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