Thursday, February 12, 2009

小心再中毒

睇住美國財政部長蓋納特(Timothy Geithner)一邊公布偉大的金融穩定計劃(Financial Stability Plan),美股一邊瀉未停,無他,消息落實就無得炒,至於內容空泛、新意欠奉,相信是為大市狂跌找藉口而已,畢竟滲料滲到渣都無,怎會還有驚喜呢?

大家最關注的,必然是如何用5,000億美元(約3.9萬億港元),甚至將金額谷到1萬億美元(約7.8萬億港元)這種天文數字,向金融機構買入所謂「毒資產」的不良資產,讓金融機構盤數更「乾淨」,不用憂慮撇帳無得停,而買金融股的投資者,亦無需擔心撥備問題。

無疑,蓋納特那份文件只有寥寥三段提及設立一個由政府和私人合組的基金去收購毒資產,的確令人失望,但政府引入私人機構合作,希望用市場機制去定價,避免高價買入,損害納稅人利益,更可讓其他投資者和各行業受惠,因為會計、律師、評估公司,甚至如用拍賣方式的話,拍賣公司又可分一杯羹,人人有工開,促進就業嘛!

當然,未來問題多多已屬意料中事,如定價釐定政策、那些金融機構的不良資產要剝離,甚至是道德風險等問題,似乎現在才是問題的開始,但現時頭痛醫頭,腳痛醫腳,先「穩定」下來更重要。

其實,內地過去早為國有企業處理不良資產。還記得四大國有銀行部署上市,自然要「包裝」優質資產,並將不良資產剝離,於1999年就要剝離高達1.4萬億元人民幣不良資產,直至2004年,中國銀行(3988)和建設銀行(939)籌備上市,也是剝離了1,970億元人民幣的不貸款,還動用外匯儲備向這些銀行注資,以提升其資本實力。

不過,當時市場亦質疑其成效,特別是究竟如何去衡量這些不良資產怎樣轉化成為良好資產,還是純粹抽離後,由政府接收,變相由納稅人承擔這些或變成壞帳的不良資產。至於各行各業參與,甚至設資產管理公司解決不良資產,意味運作成本不低,但由於間間公司也是「阿公」的,處理自然較易。

此外,美國財政部要恢復借貸活動,但面對經濟衰退環境,如何避免那些新增資產又變成不良資產呢?因為剛剝離那些毒資產,豈知金融機構又「中毒」,惡性循環問題又如何解決呢?財政部已提出金融機構要提高透明度,如要金融機構每月提交報告,披露向商業、消費者的新增貸款情況,以及購入的資產抵押證券等,甚至擺上網任睇(網址為:FinancialStability.gov),還要接受壓力測試,即一早應該做的監管行動。

財政部又設法重新啟動貸款證券化市場,不惜為購買中小企貸款抵押證券的投資者提供融資,更大增擔保比重至九成,接近封蝕本門兼減少投資額,表面看是讓資金重新流動,但不禁令人憂慮,另一個泡沫是否將會形成。唯一要讚的,可能是穩住樓市決心不變,但現在連份工也不保,試問又怎樣保住間屋呢?

(2月12日刊於《am730》)

9 Comments:

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當物業已成為炒賣工具而没有人住的時候 其實已變成貨幣 當同一物業價格上升而没有其他原因時就是通貨膨脹 只是收藏在於物業市場內造成一個低通脹假像 迫使正規貨幣的通貨膨脹跟隨

 
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