Tuesday, January 20, 2009

滙控攻防戰

滙豐控股(005)股價已經連跌6日,昨日收市報62.3元,計計股價從74.7元開始回落至今,累積跌幅已經有16.6%,但對比英國同業如巴克萊(Barclays)和蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)的跌幅,仍算輕微。

該股昨日更上演攻防戰,股價持續走低,午後見61.3元低位,正當大家準備見61元之際,市場傳出該股接受英國政府注資,好友立即趁機反攻,直至3時許,股價在一分鐘內從61.75元抽上61.9元,之後更有大戶斥1,208萬元,以每股62元大手掃19.5萬股,幫助股價打底,續上62.65元,可惜淡友當道,之後市場消化傳聞,股價再掉頭向下,始終無法再重回上周五水平。唯一值得安慰的是,大手成交再有逾千宗,反映該股並非一面倒被看淡,開始有人計數,而該股重申話無需英國政府注資,代表不用國有化,能夠抵擋這股洪流。

這股洪流就是由上周美國銀行(Bank of Amercia)那份成績表見紅,而摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase) 盈利亦顯著倒退刮起,大家應該明白,滙豐控股會成為大戶造淡推低的狙擊對象,更引發新一輪金融動盪,就是因為有關抵押資產債券等價值有限,銀行很難不跟隨做撇帳。

上周五先輪到美國的盟友英國銀行股遭殃,巴克萊在整個08年,股價累積下挫了約69%,但該日股價就已經急速下挫高達25%之多!當然,承接美國銀行業的成績表去計數,大戶懂得怎樣推低,雖然巴克萊及後講明,自己於2月17日公布業績時,稅前利潤必比分析員普遍預測的53億英鎊(約600億港元)為佳,但恐怕難挽回投資者信心。

英國政府終於要再出手,首相白高敦愈踩愈深,最慘烈的,當然是RBS,竟然一年要蝕280億英鎊(約3,167億港元),代表去年英國政府注資的200億英鎊(約2,262億港元)即時冇晒!試問曾被喻為拯救金融界英雄的白高敦,怎不暴跳如雷。執筆之時,RBS股價曾暴挫64%之多,只剩下12.3便士,完全演繹美國銀行股被質低的相同場面,但可知道去年白高敦注資的200億英鎊中,有150億英鎊是用每股65.5便士買入RBS的普通股,代表批貨已經蒸發了81.2%之多!好了,白高敦更將批價值50億英鎊的RBS優先股,以每股31.75便士,全部轉換為普通股,即時又帳面損失61%,若果你是英國納稅人,是不是想轟他下台呢?

此外,當時與美國財長保爾森各走不同道路的他,也要走上動用公帑,收購銀行資產的舊路,希望銀行銀根能夠獲紓緩,反映現時貸款市場依然面對借錢難的困境。

不過,最恐怖的是,他提出,銀行為所持的有毒資產設定虧損上限,假使日後這批資產再產生的額外虧損中,九成為政府擔保,但這些有毒資產實際所涉總額有巨大,相信無人知曉,所以有關措施純粹為穩定市場信心,及將問題延後解決,日後若再爆過,屆時便要再想其他辦法好了。

(1月20日刊於《am730》)

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