Thursday, January 08, 2009

翻兜工業股

港股昨日認真墟冚,消息滿天飛,首先是中國落實發出3G牌照,內地電訊股和電訊設備股頓時應聲下挫,大市即時被中國移動(941)和中國聯通(762)兩隻藍籌股拖累,之後又有建設銀行(939)終於遭美國銀行大手減持,單是這3隻股份已推低恒指高達229點,佔全日跌幅比重超過四成。

下午又突然話彤叔,即新世界發展(017)主席鄭裕彤病倒入醫院的傳聞,壞消息又出現,可見有心人發功的落力程度,難怪恒指全日不見了522點。

中國政府終於發出3G牌照,只是將概念泡沫刺破,讓之前備受追捧的電訊設備股進入實牙實齒的競爭狀態,日後能否繼續享受如此急漲的股價表現,就要靠業績支持,但過去經驗顯示,概念消失後,股價多難支持下去,持貨者小心。

需注意,是次獲發3G牌照的內地電訊公司,是3隻重磅內地電訊股的母公司,故有關股份不用停牌,待公布股價敏感消息。運作方面,這些股份向母公司租用3G網絡容量,主要提供銷售等服務,日後待發展成熟,難免會惹來將3G網絡擁有權和資產注入上市公司的概念,藉此提升營運效益。

恒指雖然下跌,但仍有逆市奇葩,讓入市的投資者繼續獲利,這就是跌至低殘的工業股。表現最驚人的,首選停牌近月的毅力工業(332)昨日復牌,即展現「升空」之旅,由於股價「細細粒」,開市5分鐘已經炒高52%,見0.105元,全日更曾有1倍增幅,收市收窄至升66%至0.115元,輕易成為最大升幅股份,而成交股份逾3,969萬股。話雖該股正進行債務重組,實屬負面消息,但又話有白武士想拯救,有意向該股泵水,自然要造好配合,但投資者或奪控制權,人稱毅力林的主席林文燦就可能失去自己創辦的王國了。

由於毅力有人垂青,多隻曾是基金愛股的工業股也獲響應,如勝獅貨櫃(716)鑊氣十足,有逾1.2億股成交,股價曾暴升六成,收市仍漲41%至1.06元,無失禮,如果去年尾買入,今年幾日累積回報有1.2倍,十分和味。

至於隻德昌電機(179)亦有捧場客,全日升6.3%至1.84元,重回3個月高位,市場懶理美國汽車業差勁表現對該集團的影響。另一隻曾獲基金支持的創科實業(669)也連升兩日,昨續彈1.7%至2.28元,成交額亦超過1.6億元。

其實,海外市場不濟,出口為主的工業股無疑承受巨大衝擊,像近日見鐵路春運提早出現,廠家朋友話反正生意不多,倒不如提早一個月讓民工回鄉,一來避免購火車票難,更重要是省回燈油火蠟也,聽聞東莞厚街已經靜晒!

不過,由於這類股份的股價已經跌得過殘,市盈率重回可計算水平,兼且多國有救市振興大計,加上原材料價格已大降,難免會吸引投資者將戰場轉移,但出口和生產環境能否改善不容忽視,小心「泊入」的資金趁高位沽貨離場。

(1月8日刊於《am730》)

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