Tuesday, January 06, 2009

掛單經紀保命

美國候任總統奧巴馬在經濟亂世中,找尋救市良方,《華爾街日報》話,他準備了一份總值3,000億美元(約2.34萬億港元)的退稅計劃,希望盡快讓市民手上有更充足的現金,能夠花錢消費以刺激經濟。初聽起來,原來又是新瓶舊酒,因為布殊總統也曾經用這招,結果當然是差強人意,因為連份工都無著落,怎會還亂花錢呢?

有趣的是,內地政府也準備在稅項方面出手,選擇性地減稅。財政部話去年收入增長19%至逾6萬億元人民幣,但去年下半年收入已呈下降趨勢,今年相信也難捱,恐怕財政見赤字機會很大。

其實,危機仍然揮之不去,所以才會見到救市未停,但股市將壞消息當好消息炒,期指尾市更高水近百點見15,644點收市,究竟搭個靚棚,定續向高位挑戰呢?港股成交近495億元,扣除窩輪加牛熊證共逾117億元成交額,只有378億元而已。順帶一提,今年首兩個交易日已有55隻「熊仔」被打靶了。

其實,08年大市成交額與07年旺市比較,的確是天淵之別,儘管去年首五個月成交額仍然有所上升,可惜自5月起持續下跌,特別是10月和11月,成交額分別大跌62%和68%,相信去年12月的交易額也不會比07年好。

不過,望望成交股數方面,08年首9個月仍然錄得升幅,直至10月才報跌,相信牛熊證和窩輪交投帶來一定支持外,市場買賣情況並非全面萎縮,只是一些公司股價已經顯著回落,令到成交股數雖有增加,交易額卻出現下跌情況。

經紀行如果一向招呼細碼客戶,即使交易金額小,每次收最低消費額,依然有肉食,但中型和大型經紀行開支大,若果客戶遭受重創,甚至無彈藥追反彈,抑或欠缺入市信心,情況自然較高危,因為經紀佣金肯定少了一截。

禤中怡同在證券行掛單的朋友談起,他亦說收入大減,但向同行查問所知,實質所受影響亦未算太嚴重。這類股票經紀並非證券行的受薪員工,而是與證券行協商,承諾每月最少進行的交易額,然後自行找客戶,而證券行提供所需證券買賣的資源,如報價系統、結算交收等,有關交易佣金當然有得傾。

朋友話,證券買賣生意無疑受打擊,但去年第四季,即風捲殘雲的歲月,他甚至不惜叫客不要落注。以賺佣維生的角度看,似乎有點奇怪,但他說最重要是幫客戶保留實力,然後在去年最後兩個月,趁大市有波幅,即協助客戶炒短線賺錢,自己亦成功賺取佣金。他話,市旺時一日做200多個transactions(交易),仍屬閒事,但去年第四季當然不可同日而語,幸好每日都有百多個交易,減低成交額縮減的影響。

不過,朋友歎道,有個大客玩「I kill you later」,即累計期權合約,一鋪輸掉超過3球錢(即300萬元也),難免削弱投入港股的資金,變相少了生意商機也。禤中怡話一息尚存,前面還是機會處處的。

(1月6日刊於《am730》)

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