Tuesday, December 09, 2008

獵熊記

上周同大家講,新瓶舊酒照炒,反映大市雖有不利情緒圍繞,但當大市方向轉變時,絕不能同市場「拗氣」,否則死無葬身之地。

為甚麼大市向上也輸到無葬身之地?因為昨日在牛熊證市場,竟然有多達71隻牛熊證慘遭強制收回,而他們全部屬於熊證!相信話昨日已上演了今年以來最悲慘的一場獵熊記,恐怕也不會有人反對。至於在這批強制收回的牛熊證當中,恒指熊證就佔36隻之多,即佔整體逾50%。

恒指昨日裂口從上周五的13,846點抽上14,303點,足足升了457點,本來已經危危乎的恒指瑞銀(60761),其強制收回水平為13,900點,較上周五僅差54點,但一過夜就走不了,率先為大市暴升揭開序幕。

所謂好戲在後頭,在開市後短短1個小時內,恒指已攀上14,700點,那批強制收回價在14,500至14,700點的熊證數一數都有十多隻,亦要壽終正寢。

倘若不服輸,以為有一定升幅,繼續要找熊證捧場的話,港股就再展現新奇之旅,特別是尾市階段,恒指最後更進一步突破15,000點,再多加44點至15,044點收市。其實只要一到15,000點,就已經再令5隻熊證因到達強制收回水平,也要損手離場,真的是連尾注都被沒收,而從15,000點再升的44點,或許是錦上添花而已。

經常有專家話,買牛熊證,可以揀距離收回價遠一點的來炒,避免收回便無仇報,奈何面對這種市況,層層破關,兼且急速達標的可能性仍大,故此參與這種炒賣時,慎防成大戶獵物。

其實,若果有留意,在上月中,禤中怡已提出內地推出4萬億元人民幣刺激經濟方案,會否令國企股表現同其他非中資股之間,出現兩極化情況,叫大家留意會否成為一種趨勢,而昨日大市所見,國企股持續受市場追捧,雖然恒指升8.7%,但國企股指數升幅更厲害,達9.5%,再次出現國企股指數跑贏恒指的情況,無他,恒指成分股內,有些業務前景非佳的股份,只能跟隨造好,難受惠內地刺激經濟措施所帶來的好處,甚至中線仍可能要捱打,如富士康(2038)和利豐(494),前者仍會分別受本身電訊市場環境影響,而後者亦會面對美國經濟前景疲弱等困擾。

此外,中國救市,美國救市,甚至連慢幾拍的特區政府也終於推出創造就業等救市措施,反映全球正努力縮短陷入衰退的時間,皆因弄致民不聊生的話,肯定會造成民怨處處,但既然已經積極出手,有工開就有收入,以供消費,就算方案未全面展開,現時看來,多少為股市添上一些利好藉口。

不過,證券界朋友昨日警告,國企股股價在過去幾日已抽上不少,風險相對增加,特別是在未來兩日,就更要睇清楚,若果中央經濟會議沒有實質刺激經濟措施,小心又被掉頭造低,屆時又可能成陽澄湖名物了!

(12月9日刊於《am730》)

9 Comments:

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