Thursday, November 13, 2008

投資冰島凍過水

以前聽投資專家講,採取分散投資策略,可以減低風險云云,避免將所有蛋放在一個籃子,萬一打翻籃子便全軍覆沒,但在這兩個月,大家相信已經歷油、金、股、匯齊齊報跌的經典場面,或許做定期存款最穩陣。

本來持有債券(當然不是迷你債券),風險相對較少,但揀錯的話,一樣分分鐘出事,最新的「主角」就是工銀亞洲(349),原來認購了由冰島三大銀行發行之債券,面值6億元,究竟是貪其息高,抑或夠穩陣呢?該集團話該批浮息債券要全數撇帳,認真無奈,禤中怡講的無奈,是指工銀亞洲的股東。

另一個重點是,若果大家沒有淡忘的話,冰島經濟和銀行出現問題,應該也有逾一個月時間,為何工銀亞洲竟然遲遲未有披露,直至昨日才公布,兼且毫不留情地,全部撇帳了事,莫非要找同事飛往冰島處理,要花費大量時間?究竟訊息披露制度是否仍有效,而今次所涉虧損,對比中信泰富(267)實屬九牛一毛,但遲遲未作公布的處理手法,何其相似。

難得的是,該集團還要客氣地話,稱該批債券撇帳無大問題,因為損失只佔總資產值不多於0.3%。禤中怡認為投資失誤,管理層責無旁貸,因為純利減少6億元,單是股息金額能否得保已令人懷疑,削弱銀行本身的資本實力就更嚴重。

經過金融海嘯一役,銀行內裡的投資組合終於陸續露出真面目,原來也是如此「分散投資」的,無論是兩房、華互銀行等等的債券,本港銀行也要撈一把,相信這些銀行的投資部同事理應做了審查才落疊,以為用低息存款,去做高息債券投資,賺息差就已經夠和味,可惜今次撇帳最狠的,就是這些銀行,畢竟有高息回報,其實是有風險溢價的。

面對左撇撇,右撇撇,銀行財政實力必然被削弱,難怪銀行裁員之聲不絕於耳,害苦了下面的前線員工。禤中怡剛收到在星展銀行打工的賓架朋友講,佢話銀行上周公布要裁員,本來大家心照,但公布消息後,原來並非即時執包袱,還要等到月尾才揭盅,代表人人要繼續戰戰兢兢,一邊工作,一邊等待半個月時間,究竟自己是否有份起身,仍屬未知之數,心情難免一沉。

朋友更話,銀行本身有雙糧制度,但規定要工作直至12月底,方算符合資格,而且不會按比例支付雙糧,若果今次不幸被揀中,偏偏還差一個月才做滿一年,豈不少收一筆?禤中怡唯有安慰道,相信銀行不會如此不近人情,更著他望清楚份僱傭合約,無謂自己嚇自己。

企業投資或經營失誤,影響真的很大,小的可能是削弱盈利能力兼裁減員工,最終邁向結業一途就最慘,所以坐在高位的管理層,實在不能掉以輕心。

(11月13日刊於《am730》)

13 Comments:

At 11:03 PM, Blogger 市場維京人 said...

家下都唔知仲有邊間上市公司會隨時出事,所以真係好難有信心大注大注買股票。小注怡情算數。

 
At 4:28 PM, Anonymous S&B said...

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At 11:17 AM, Anonymous 順叔 said...

銀行成日用損失只佔總資產若干巴仙黎淡化影響,但銀行的客戶存款係負債,而佔總資產的絕大部分。若果以損失佔其股本而不是總資產若干巴仙計,就會多好多了。

 
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