Wednesday, November 12, 2008

目標價睇零

溫總救市撐得一日,立刻還原基本因素,就是經濟惡化速度加快,特別是來自歐美市場所帶來的衝擊,可能對出口導向型經濟為主的亞洲各國構成不利影響。

大家早已預料衰退來臨,但大行報告對大市的影響亦不少,且看大摩昨日又發功,一口氣將亞洲多個國家的經濟增長預測大幅調低,最重要的是,香港明年經濟不單欠缺正數增長,甚至預期全年會見負增長1.2%,無法擺脫衰退命運,試問淡友怎不大舉進攻,加上有滙豐控股(005)業績麻麻做主角,午後大市基本上全面走低,滙控當然難逃全日最低位的88元收市,單一隻便已經能夠推低恒指逾109點,佔跌市的15.5%比重。

恒指全日跌4.7%,但相對國企股指數的降幅只有3.7%,似乎中資股或有更強抗跌力,究竟那筆巨大的4萬億元人民幣救市資金,加上證券商又要重新計數,國企股的股價表現,同其他非中資股會否出現兩極化情況,就是具備內地市場龍頭地位的企業,將獲較多資金追捧,而將受金融海嘯波及的股份,將被洗走,需留意未來會否成為一種趨勢,抑或繼續同聲齊衰(退)。

大行發出報告,一向都會成為大市參考的指標,尤其是大家為股市升跌找藉口的時候,而未知投資銀行今年是否生意太淡薄,以往分析報告多用「買入」評級,但這個年頭叫人沽售的比比皆是,甚至齊心合力,將目標價在短期內調低又調低,有時不知參考作用有多大。

不過,在大海的另一邊,好似德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)分析師Rod Lache就更厲害,他在周一發表通用汽車(General Motors Corp)的分析報告中,將該股目標價大幅下調,竟然由4美元,大幅削減至零!你沒有看錯,是阿拉伯數目字:「0」,在數學定義上仍有其意思,但簡單來說,就是一文不值,代表叫你不要沾手也,故那個「沽售」評級反而有畫蛇添足的感覺。當然,能夠看得那麼淡,因為報告分析認為,若果美國政府不出手拯救的話,通用汽車現時手頭的資金,根本難以捱到今年底,恐怕屆時只有走向破產一途。或許通用汽車股價於周一從4.36美元直插22.9%至3.36美元,這份報告所產生的威力,應記一功。

美國候任總統奧巴馬未上任,先接這個大問題,人人都話這間巨型企業不能倒下,據汽車研究中心調查估計,只要一關門就會有250萬人加入失業大軍,美國個人收入將減少1,250億美元,甚至把本地生產總值(GDP)足足拉低1個百分點之多,相信波及範圍比雷曼兄弟更廣,但救得通用,無理由不救福特(Ford),而佳士拿(Chrysler)亦要扶一把吧!恐怕齊齊變國有企業。

此情此景,禤中怡想起不少內地企業頭頭話要做大做強,莫非規模夠大,日後出事有中央打救?

(11月12日刊於《am730》)

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