Wednesday, November 05, 2008

兩李投資考眼光

美國總統選舉成為全球政治大新聞,畢竟勝出者儼如世界領袖般,可以左右大局也,但禤中怡更關心的是,新總統究竟接手的攤子有多爛。

如望望穆迪旗下Economy.com統計美國的經濟衰退情況,直至9月底,已經有30個州陷入衰退,與3月時才只有5個州比較,惡化速度驚人,另外還有19個州更存在危機,準備加入衰退俱樂部,唯一仍然處於經濟擴張的地區,竟然是遠方的阿拉斯加,或許是有石油吧!

此外,美國10月汽車銷售續大跌32%至只有近84萬部,可見實體經濟影響嚴重程度,故此不要期望換個舵手,就可以擺脫滔天巨浪,因要駛回避風港,仍有大段距離,相信新總統這個位子也非易坐。

至於港股在美國總統選舉結果公布前夕,話雖上落高低位有686點,其實觀望氣氛較濃厚,皆因全日成交總額只有約453億元,扣除窩輪和牛熊證成交,更只餘315億元交投。

不過,大家索性轉炒牛熊證,成交額達76億元,差不多比窩輪還多近15億元,相信牛熊證年內要突破單日100億元成交額,應該不難,但禤中怡見到投資者對這種高風險投資樂此不疲,只有嘆句賭性難改。

除美國總統大選外,其實港股亦出現對決場面,就是李兆基與李嘉誠的投資策略對碰。一向都知,李兆基是好友一名,先不管他猜恒指走勢如何如何,最終結果又是另一回事,只要見到他樂於大手在市場買貨,已代表對市場的肯定。

不過,李兆基終於按捺不住,在上月30日拋售持有多年的中國人壽(2628)合共3,182萬股,平均價19.387元,拿回逾6億元。所涉金額和股份(佔約0.43%股權),著實不多,但可見他對後市仍有保留,藉此機會將回報變現,難免被視為看淡訊號。

當然,李兆基可以繼續買貨,但實在不需要先賣貨才再入貨,除非是感到短期股價再上高位存有難度,所以先減持離場,況且股權進一步降至4.72%,股權低於規定需披露水平,日後再拋貨亦不用再作披露。

另一邊廂,未知是否累積下跌太多,一向看淡股市的李嘉誠,卻展開增持之旅,由其領導的長實(001)與和黃(013)卻用真金白銀,多番增持和記電訊國際(2332)股權,莫非內裡有乾坤,抑或有些看好的因素,是投資者所忽視的?究竟今次誰人看市較準呢?

當然,大價股難炒,若果想找細價股,則不妨看看股壇長毛David Webb的投資貼士,原來他於10月28日,入市增持新興光學(125)5萬股,股權由4.99%增至5.01%,令股份投資曝光,未知是否刨完年報才出手。該股昨收市報1.68元,無升跌,但亦欠成交。

(11月5日刊於《am730》)

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