Tuesday, November 04, 2008

10分鐘殺手

恒指大幅反彈後,昨日又見大市迫向15,000點這個20天平均線關口,早段見14,889點,已屬全日高位,奈何最近兩三個月,能夠突破這個關口的力量仍嫌不足,恒指在11月首個交易日只能升375點至14,344點。

話雖股價已累積下跌不少,要推高大市所需的彈藥,確比去年相若時間,動輒逾千億元成交為少,但昨日成交額只得520億元,顯然有補倉盤繼續買貨外,上市公司回購,以及控股股東入市支持,也佔一席位,實際買貨的力量未算顯著。即使之前齊齊參與沽貨行動的基金,現金水平可能屬新高,但相信仍未完全入市,畢竟贖回潮是否完結,投資者會否在年尾再抽走資金,仍屬未知之數。

此外,英國《金融時報》話,管理110億美元(約858億港元)資金的美國對沖基金Ramius考慮退還於本港的交易與諮詢牌照,以削減成本,及將資金調回歐美。報道更話,有跡象顯示對沖基金為應付贖回,正撤出亞洲,如區內資金流出規模,由8月時的21億美元升至9月份的43億美元,加上利用借貸炒賣,即孖展能力被大大削弱,反映大市將會又少了一大筆資金,上升動力從何而來呢?

不過,大戶總會找到搵錢機會,近日便發生在收市競價時段,部分公司股價在這10分鐘內急速攀升的異常波動情況,若果趁高興加入,隨時粉身碎骨。好似隻中海運(598),上周五股價在收市競價時段造高達65%,由1.02元彈上1.68元,怎知休息兩天,昨日開市只得1.3元,急挫22.6%,更低見1.16元,最後只收1.21元,逆市不見近28%。還有隻中保國際(966)亦相當悲壯,上周五同樣在競價時段被「嘜高」48%至17.8元,昨日一開市便失守13元,即時失去27%,最後更以全日最低位12.74元收市,下跌共28.4%。

港交所(388)引入收市競價時段,本來希望可以公平地反映股份收市價,但當中的AO價,即競價盤(auction order)已成為舞高弄低的工具,究竟背後是否與其他衍生工具有關,就不得而知,況且有數得計,要用幾多彈藥自然易過借火,散戶如果以為在這10分鐘內搵食,隨時有入無出。

目前競價盤是沒有指定價格的買賣盤,為減少人為操控,港交所不妨將最後兩分鐘的競價盤設高低波幅上限,如10%等,相信這並非難事,更可避免讓這種情況惡化。

可惜,正如交通部在街口設立交通燈,即使令交通變得一塌糊塗,甚至的士司機開聲,甚至區議員表達不滿,要求拆去交通燈,交通部亦會有其道理而維持不變,唯有等交通意外終於發生,情況可能才會得到改善,但大家真的要等到那天來臨嗎?

(11月4日刊於《am730》)

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