Tuesday, October 14, 2008

急單急死人

面對金融黑洞,環球政府拿真金白銀救大型銀行,難怪大家又癲過,加上有低息推波助瀾,當然要再搭個大棚,等大家入市。

不過,那些寶貴的資源究竟從何而來?豈不是各位納稅人口袋裡的錢!日後真的不用加稅,就有錢填滿那個財政空洞,抑或大家勒緊褲頭,準備迎接寒冬。

還記得上周提及大摩亞洲掌舵人羅奇提出,今次這場大禍將蔓延至非金融機構嗎?禤中怡想到的,必然是出口業,而這段時間正好是出口高峰期,廠房內的機器應開足馬力,努力交單以應付歐美客戶最重視的聖誕銷售旺季也,故立刻找著廠家朋友問候一番。

果然不出所料,朋友第一句就話,客戶的訂單的確有點慢下來,特別是美國市場,因花旗客戶見到勢色不對,前景不明朗,儘管次按問題不一定人人遭殃,奈何憂慮心態必影響消費信心,所以生意必慢下來,以前8月睇新產品,9月已經有訂單預算,但今年直至10月才開始落訂單,而客戶採取的折衷方案就是,以往訂300萬件貨,現在改為斬件式落單,先落實要100萬件貨,寧願先看看市場反應,隨時作出應變,若果好賣,可能於半個月後才再加100萬件新貨訂單,甚至不惜由海運,轉用空運方式,解決短時間內付運問題,避免積聚太多存貨的風險上升外,也可較靈活應付需求,當然,運費必定上升,客戶如何應付這筆額外開支就不得而知,起碼先減低虧損機會,倘銷情佳,有盈利已算不俗吧!

朋友生產的是必需品,相信生意「跌極有個譜」,此外,今年內地不少廠商結業,相信會有一些新客戶將訂單轉過來,但工廠始終有產能限制,不可為此而大事擴充,同時生產時間亦有限制,總不能全日開工,故客戶採取急單策略的話,可能難以在短時間內完全滿足需求,現時唯有提高生產使用率。由於不能拉長來做,恐怕生意最終難免受影響。

對於明年經營趨勢,廠家朋友亦感到經濟轉差,因為大家的信心始終未恢復,而應付方法之一,自然由內部做起,節省成本當然經常要做,稍後更要遠赴內陸考察,尋覓合適建廠地點,再做開荒牛,希望享受較低工資的勞動力及生產成本,藉此維持競爭力。至於以往即日來往中港兩地的優勢,相信很快會消失,雖不致於「長駐候教」,出差一周時間料屬等閒事,禤中怡只好祝福他一路平安。

(10月14日刊於《am730》)

4 Comments:

At 12:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

歐美市場差已是不爭的事實,儘管銷量下降但仍是有需求的。廠家就必須想方法配合如此不穩定的market demand. 我司(也是典型的廠商)向客戶推銷的方案,由forecast model轉為consumption driven model. 為客戶大幅減存貨,需要買貨的錢少了,呆滯貨少了,自然利潤增加。如果其他parameters(如價錢,技術)也配合,其實是win win的方法。

 
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