Tuesday, September 16, 2008

快輪到對沖基金

美國巨頭金融股紛紛倒下,市場對高盛、大摩、花旗也視成為危險目標,可見骨牌效應威力之大。

市場資金自然要找地方避難,進一步加劇銀根抽緊情況,除了這些龍頭大阿哥外,還要留意下一波將蔓延至對沖基金(hedge fund)。曾幾何時,對沖基金好像是天下無敵的投資工具,又話長短倉,又用套戥策略,更出動電腦程式分析等等,總之投資五花八門,但究竟如何幫投資者賺錢,就好像是商業秘密般,不露口風。

可惜,一輪狂風掃落葉,股、匯、債和商品都變得翻天覆地,即使有三頭六臂,對沖基金的投資表現,原來同一般散戶般,輸錢收場,唯一的分別,可能是輸多定輸少。

由於大市波動,據《Hedge Fund Research》(對沖基金調查)統計顯示,今年首8個月,對沖基金平均損失4.8%,屬10年來最差的投資表現。

睇《Absolute Return》(絕對回報),一間被譽為全球最成功的對沖基金Renaissance Technologies,幫襯交給他們管理的資產,於6月底雖然仍高達290億美元(2,262億港元),但在上半年,其管理的資產其實已減少14.71%,而同期著名大行高盛(Goldman Sachs)的資產管理部門的資產亦只縮水7.9%。

管理的資產總額下降,原因不外乎投資表現不濟,回報錄負數,手上的產價值自然縮水。此外,投資者見到不賺反蝕,自然懂得計數,況且以前借錢容易,手頭鬆動的,流些少給對沖基金打理,希望有高回報,但今日信貸收縮,大家當然要求贖回,而本月底又屬季度贖回時間,當然危機更深。

見到勢色不對,就要搵方法綁住大客的心,更重要的,還有是綁住那疊銀紙,其中一個冧客招數,就是減價。有間對沖基金Camulos Capital LP最近向客戶表明,若肯保留資金供其發揮,管理費將降至1.25%,比標準收費的2%,低了0.75個百分點。此外,像流動電話服務一樣,肯被綁一段時間,就會有回贈般,這間對沖基金話資金被綁兩年,日後投資回報所得,只抽回報中所賺的10%當獎金,與一般收取獲利的20%作報酬的比例,足足減了一半。

另一間管理65億美元(約507億港元)的對沖基金Ore Hill更想出時間逾綁得長,收費逾低,如綁1年,管理費只收1%,只抽回報的15%,如綁1年半,所抽回報比率再降至10%,若肯綁足兩年,管理費更只續降至0.75%。

初步看,投資成本減少,變相可提升整體回報率,但市況如此不濟,客戶計數離場機會大,對沖基金就要以折讓價出售資產套現,損失不在話下,但會否對岌岌可危的大市落井下石呢?

(9月16日刊於《am730》)

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